Gbp/cad

[Raj]

There may be a counter trend trade forming up as we've reached a fib extension...only if we get a CF though, and targets 382 and 618 of the new swing once we get two candle to the right. And if we get a CF, stop below the 127 of the current swing. Again, counter-trend.

:)

[Raj]

Well this is all i've been trading this morning on the 1minute chart...buying every 618 retrace (you can see in every case the trend line and stochastics were in allignment)...and banking every 127% hit. Then after we hit the 382 resistance, a bear crown setup gave us a perfect right tip equal to the left tip at the backside of the trendline, and a CF to boot.

:)

HAppy Pipping

[pipsqueakr]

Bernanke has created some TT on the 1h.. be careful

[Rob123]

You are a forex pipping beast ! lol

[supra]

Hi Raj,

It never ceases to amaze me how those pips just seem to line up for you to take them. Simply awesome!

A couple of questions please, if I may.

Q1: You mentioned that you don't necessarily need a CF to enter on 61.8% fib retracement. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I assume that given a 61.8% fib retracement without a CF, you would place your initial stop loss 15 pips below the last swing low (for longs). In the event that the market is kind enough to give a CF, in your experience does it pay to be aggressive and place your initial stop loss 15 pips below the CF?

Q2: For crown trades, do you always place your initial stop loss above the Centre Tip? Or above a CF at the RT if you happen to get one?

Thank you.

[supra]

You are a forex pipping beast ! lol

Hi Rob,

I would rather be a pipping beast than a beauty anytime. Lol!

I was in the same NZD/USD short, all out now for 70 pips.

Cheers.

[supra]

There may be a counter trend trade forming up as we've reached a fib extension...:)

Hi Raj,

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I notice that sometimes you don't use the lowest swing low (or high) in drawing your fibs.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Thanks Guys...yes Supra, you dont need a CF for a 618 retrace, but also yes to placing the stop below/above the low/high...Ive seen many instances where you even get a CF at the 618, then the market rallies a bit, then falls for a deeper retrace. For crown trades, stop should ideally be above the centre tip, and that even should be a stop reverse.

As far as measuring fibs...you can measure from extreme highs and lows to figure out where you're support and resistance areas are, but when trading the abcd method, once you have your latest AB boundary it never changes till the fib ext is hit. This is perhaps why you noticed the anomalea (did I spell that right LOL)

:)

[Raj]

Had some meetings this morning so I couldnt give a heads up on this one, but I took a long at the 118% D fib extension of the big 240 swing. 7165 was my entry on the 30min bullish candle. Hopefully we close with a 240 bullish CF.

:)

Happy pipping

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Really could not keep up with you, Raj! :)

Please share the reasons for your trade. I can see that you have a confluence between the 118 & 127 extension and, of course, the 30-min bullish candle. But are there more to it?

I guess I am just not used to the idea of picking tops & bottoms and am therefore curious what makes you so confident taking the trade.

Thank you.

[pipsqueakr]

Do we have a 1h bull crown on the G/C?

[pipsqueakr]

1h TT on G/C

[Raj]

Supra, both swings you have marked on your chart hit their fib entensions. The first swing was an 86 bounce, so we expect it to go to the 118%, your second swing also an 86 bounce expecting the 118 (sometimes 86 bounces go to 127%). So there was double support at this price level, so when we get a CF there, this is our trigger.

:)

[Raj]

The market does the same thing over and over and over again...its good to memorize these patterns. We took out our "a" from the down move, so a crown set-up nicely.

:)

[Raj]

Pipsqueakr, yes nicely spotted!!

[Raj]

signal from 618 res,...stop now at 7152...will probably get stopped out with 100 pip profit

:)

[supra]

Supra, both swings you have marked on your chart hit their fib entensions. The first swing was an 86 bounce, so we expect it to go to the 118%, your second swing also an 86 bounce expecting the 118 (sometimes 86 bounces go to 127%). So there was double support at this price level, so when we get a CF there, this is our trigger.

:)

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the explanation.

It seems that when the extension reach the designated target based on the retracement level, it's definitely worth some real watching. But what about if price retraces to the 78.6 and the extension goes to 162, does it become insignificant and not worth paying attention to? Please advise.

Thank you.

[supra]

Thanks Guys...yes Supra, you dont need a CF for a 618 retrace...
:)

Hi Raj,

I am still not clear on what you mean by not needing a CF for a 61.8 or deeper retrace. Do you mean that you do not specifically need a particular CF (MS, ES, TT, etc.)?

Say you are looking to go long on a 61.8 retrace, even if you don't need a CF, please correct me if I am wrong, but at least you still need an "up" candle to tell you that price has found support at that level and then trigger your entry. Or do you just place a buy limit order at the 61.8? But how do you know that price will find support there and not at the 78.6 or 86?

I hope you understand what I am trying to ask. Please enlighten me.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, yes, you can place a buy/sell at 618 or deeper within your AB boundary without a CF, but you have to be prepared for the market to possibly dip to 786 or 86 - this is why we place our stop beyond 86 or beyond the high/low. The rules change however once we break a trendline...lets say we're downtrending and we have a retrace that goes to 618...if it crosses the inner downtrendline, then you do not follow this rule - you need to have a definate CF. I've attatched jpy chart which has been a fib follower to a "T" this week. Now the most current swing you can see that the market retraced to the 618, but only after if crossed the downtrend line. (this becomes the buy zone) In order to have a sell in the buy zone, we definately need a CF no matter if it hits the 618 or not. At the 786 we did get an ES which you could have sold, but unfortunately we're a bit sideways for now. If the bulls take out the latest "c/a" point, then we look for a bullish crown set-up. Does this make it clearer?

[supra]

Hi Supra, yes, you can place a buy/sell at 618 or deeper within your AB boundary without a CF, but you have to be prepared for the market to possibly dip to 786 or 86 .... Does this make it clearer?

Hi Raj,

So I see that if price is still supported by the fibs & trend line, you would give it benefit of the doubt by entering at the 61.8 and above without a CF. Very much clearer now.

Really appreciate your detailed explanations, thank you.

[pipsqueakr]

Nice Bear Crown on the 1H... @ the pivot(daily R1)/resistance/fiblevel (.786)/UTL... i am not sure why i waited on the confirmation from the bearish engulfing... but still got 200+

[pipsqueakr]

Now may have a 5m BuC... (we have 1&2) may look to take small pips north

[Raj]

Nicely done man!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopefull the daily closes with the ES.

Set up the next swing on the 1hr!!!

Fine job indeed!!

:)

[pipsqueakr]

that shoulda read potential Bull Crown... and it was too late into friday

[Raj]

New AB boundary on this pair...will look to the resistances now.

:)

[Raj]

We got no real fibonacci bounce for the last major swing, and so the market is retracing back into the AB boundary after hitting the first support (118 level). Look for a bull crown for possible further retrace if you haven't taken the long yet, or wait for "C"

:)

[Raj]

We have some nice convergence at the SK level if the market retraces to there.

:)