nzd/usd

[Rob123]

I'm short on this one at 7200 the last daily swing at 61.8 plus or really Sk support a triple test of the daily highs -the last(third) bar was a juicy reversal bar .Wish me luck - I really like the double and triple tests on daily swing highs and lows and break. I'l be scaling on this one. Rob

[Raj]

Nice Rob, We're in a big bear crown on this one. The latest swing as marked.

Keep Pipping
:)

[Rob123]

Thanks Raj, I closed a couple of positions out allready closed to 100..i'm locking the remaining in and going to bed . Make make a little xmas money anyway :)

Rob

[Raj]

Rob, watch the supports now

:)

[pipsqueakr]

Looking for a CF on a smaller TF to support long.... Daily looks like potential Bull Crown

[pipsqueakr]

Hard to ignore 4h TB from another data feed... hopefully we will get a test

[pipsqueakr]

Looks like we got the test of the 4h... i am long again as it seemed to be another potential bull crown on the 15m and @ the .86 of the 1H upswing. will be wary of the down trend line and the prev resistance but have tp2 of 7190ish

[pipsqueakr]

was fortunate... Bull Crown didnt hold... but ended up with good support and a triple bottom on the 15m so... target moved to 7170ish from 15m up subswing from low and was able to bag a few... haven't been interested in the consol and looking for new direction

[Raj]

I don't blame you Kurt, not the greatest looking chart right now, unless you're trading withing the pennant!!


P.S. Keep an eye on GJ and GBP daily candle closes!!

:)

Happy Pipping

[pipsqueakr]

thx Raj... also keeping an eye on your E/J it looks like it may hold some promise

[Raj]

Last week I pointed out the pennant happening on Kiwi on the weekly TF...well we got a nice pattern at the support for some north pips. Nice bull crown to be specific on the 60min chart. MS on the 240 was tested for optimal entry.

Happy Pipping

:)

[Raj]

I'm closing out my long position for the day.

:)

[Raj]

I had a short placed at 7124 with stops 15 pips above the CF...luckily market kept me in the short trade to the 382 fib...missed the long opp with bullish engulfing candle at 382 though - slept right through that one.

:)

[Raj]

btw, Im scalping the short from 7149 as it was the 618 fib on the 240 chart...will take it as far as I can unti candles go against me.

:)

[pipsqueakr]

nice job Raj... congrats.. unfortunately fundy kept me out this am

[Raj]

Remember fundy's help the technical analysis LOL!!!

:)

[Raj]

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMarvelous LOL

:)

[Rob123]

Great job Raj, Now i have to back and see how you got your AB boundries lol

Rob

[pipsqueakr]

bravo Raj.... i guess those of us less certain of our analysis stay out @ fundy time :)

@ Rob when you've caught up with Raj and his ABs please share :)

[Rob123]

Here you go Kurt- 1333

[Raj]

Nice work Rob. I'm all smiles today...we hit the D ext, set up the next swing...we still need a low so im waiting on that, but let me prematurely do the swing.

:)

[Raj]

BTW, what ever happened to Supra?????

[Rob123]

Hi Raj, Great job man..hit D right on the button ! Now you can just kick back and enjoy the weekend....and relax .Nfp comes out tommorrow so i'm sure it's going to be wild and wooley. I wonder where Supra is myself...i know he travels at times...hopefully everything is ok.

Raj i have a question on your fib drawings and how the market reacts to these fibs if you don't mind. In your years of trading does the price more often go to 61.8 within the AB boundries ? I know the market isn't perfect but it does respect fibs to a certain degree pretty good.

Let me give you an example and hopefully i can explain it by example. Lets say for an example we are going short and we have completed our abcd completion - we draw are fibs from C to D to get 61.8 resistance SK ....no confluence from the last 2 swings.If prices goes up past 61.8 are you still looking for short ? The reason i ask this is because quiet a few times you draw your fibs from the whole move A to B boundries...which is the completion of abcd. ....i was just wondering the reason behind this ? Are we still looking for shorts as long as price doesn't go break the boundries in this case A boundry if we were going short ? Is it safer to let price come back past down past 61.8 before we start looking for shorts or do we look for a possible crown if it goes beyond SK ? Thanks,Rob

[Raj]

Rob, the only reason you see me draw fibs from the whold abcd move is if i'm looking for fib convergences. Sometimes we get a perfect overlap of 618 and 382 making it a very strong level, otherwise, just pulling the fib from C-D (the new AB) is what we're really interested in. And when ABCD completes, and you get the new swing - that is your Big AB boundary...you still have little abcd's and you should always first look to that swing first and foremost ie. the latest swing on the 60min. So in looking for point "C"...just wait for a CF on the 240 chart at one of the fib levels. If it happens at 382 or 50, then just exercise caution as the market sometimes goes for deeper retrace. And yes, you don't have to get in on the first move...you can wait for the 30/60 chart to give you some pattern like a crown. And if you don't like crowns, then catch the next swing on the 60min after the crown.

And yes majority of the time we get 618 retrace...even when we get a 382, and it looks like the "C", it sometimes comes back to 618 or 786 or 86

And lastly your comment about all my years of trading lol...well its only been about 3



Hope this helps

:)

[Rob123]

Thanks Raj, I see now. Yea them Sk 68/32 don't happen that often but they sure are sweet spots for sure especially close to the round number 00 and 50. Good example yesterday on the aud/cad..... wow only 3 years trading ...your doing very well .I see Raj's trading institute opening up soon in the future :) Rob

[supra]

Hi Raj & Rob,

Good day, guys. I am all well & alive. thanks. It's work & travel that prohibit me from active trading. It's all daily & weekly charts for me right now.

Raj, you are missing my bombarding questions, aren't you? :D I was afraid they were too much but since you miss it, I'll get the ball rolling again.

On your recent NZD/USD 240 trade:

Q1: Please correct me if I am wrong, but to me 0.7000 is a strong daily support. Price did find support there and we even had a higher high higher low formation on the 240. My question is why were you favoring a short in the 240, when you have (1) a strong support at 0.7000, (2) a higher high higher low and (3) a broken downtrend line (240 chart attached). Indeed there was an SK resistance at 0.7150 but if you used the minor upswings you could also get an SK support at 0.7080. So don't you think waiting for a long set-up is a higher probability trade (if it does present itself, of course)?

Q2: I presumed your trigger CF was the 240 evening star CF which I didn't have in my chart, but where did you place your initial stop loss?

Q3: In drawing your resistance fibs you didn't pull it to the lowest low at 0.6994 instead you used a higher low at 0.7020. Please advise why this is so.

Thank you,
Supra


PS: I am very impressed that it takes you only 3 years to master this. And did I hear Raj's trading institute opening soon? I'll be elbow-to-elbow with Rob to be the first to register :).

[Raj]

Hey Supra, nice to hear from you!!

I'm sorry but I have some meetings this morning, so I have to run at the moment, I'll answer all your querries over the weekend if you don't mind.

Thanks and have a great weekend.

:)

[Raj]

Got some time, so here goes.

1. Daily chart was in a pennant. Pennants usually have 5 waves (see chart)
Breakout usually happens in the 5th wave. So you can see there was a small bear crown at the start of the 5th wave - this was a great place for a position trade.

2. ABCD trading does not work in consolidation (pennant is consolidation). But what you can do is start the ABCD trading at that start of the 5th wave. (see chart) And that's all that I was doing. I simply shorted the 618 of the latest AB Boundary. Yes it was an agressive entry because there was still the 786 and 86 fib levels the market could have hit, but if you recall my post I said that I had scalped the 7150 mark and would take it as far as I could. What started as a scalp turned out to be a nice position trade. I do this a lot. But there were no CF's going against me, so I hung in there. As for stop loss - ideally above the 86 fib, but in this case I had it 15 pips above that 618. Once the market gave a bearish CF on the 240, I left my stop there. Yes it would have been safer to wait for that CF, and if you did you still would have made some decent pips.

3. Why did I choose the low at 7020 and not 6994 - well that's because that is the correct Ab boundary. Two candle to the right once we hit the last D ext. That boundary does not change even if the market dips for another smaller swing. In fact I kind of like when it does make that mini dip because it usually pulls back anyways for deeper retrace (not always but most of the time), and so this creates a nice bull crown set-up on the lower TF's to trade the retrace at least back up to the 382 of the big swing. Besides you have to keep the big AB Boundary once its established in order to figure out where the D ext is going to be. And look at that last swing - the market sank from the 382 fib, then came back and sank from the 50 fib, then came back to the 618 fib...market loves the 618, I can't say it enough.

4. Maybe in 10-20 years I'll start some institute - right now im a babe as far as all this goes. Every time I make a trade I'm still thinking "Sure hope this works out" etc etc. LOL

Hope I have answered your questions.

Happy Pipping

:)

[Raj]

By the way, this little development could be interesting as well
I'm up 50 pips from the 382 support as I write this!!!

I know, I know you're going to ask me about s/l...well weekly support is usually pretty strong, aggressive entry again, could have waited for the 30min MS.


:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the enlightening answers, as always. The problem is with me: unable to absorb your instructions fully, so I hope you don't mind having to repeat the basics. So here goes:

Q1: In your answer you mentioned that "the AB boundary does not change even if the market dips for another smaller swing". So does an AB boundary continue to remain valid as long as (1) the D ext. is not reached and (2) price does not exceed its point A, even if the B is broken substantially?

Q2: Choosing the A & B points could be a subjective exercise: I could start with an initial small swing while you would disregard the small swing and use a bigger one. Does it not matter then that you and I would have different AB boundaries and fib levels? So please provide guidelines on choosing the right points for the Ab boundary. Attached is a GBPJPY 240 chart showing an example where I have AB boundaries drawn differently than yours (please advise in case I have not drawn it correctly).

Q3: Again on AB boundary: say in a long uptrend, do we have to start by pulling the fibs from the first up swing in order to arrive at the last proper AB boundary? Or could we start from an up swing after a consolidation in the middle of the up move?

Q4: For SKs, you don't necessarily have to use the fib levels identified using the proper AB boundary (especially if price has broken the 0% level), right?

I hope my questions are clear to you, please kindly let me know if they aren't.

Thank you,
Supra

[Raj]

Hi,

1. Yes AB boundary is valid until D ext is hit, or until point A is taken out - then we would be in a crown situation.

2. AB boundary should not be too subjective - I can understand how it may be according to your example, you started at the end of the cons - this is valid. But usually we start at the highest point of the move. Yes you will have different targets, but as they say keep trading the trend untill it bends - we're still all looking to sell "C" point at fib levels with CF confirmation.

3. Again start you're fib count at the very first swing. If consolidation happens, that is part of the move. GBP chart attatched as example.



:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the answers. To further clarify things, I have hereby attached a GBPJPY 240 charts where there are both uptrend & downtrend.

Q1: Could you please check whether I have drawn and chosen all the AB boundaries correctly?

Q2: Please correct me if I am wrong: Now when price starts to make lower highs and lower lows, we then start pulling the down AB boundary (violet color lines), but the last up AB boundary (blue color lines) remains valid until point A is taken out. And if we get a confluence between the up & down AB boundaries (yellow highlighted horizontal block at around 143) then it's good level to place a trade on, a long in this case, albeit against the trend.

Q3: For SKs, you don't necessarily have to use the fib levels identified using the proper AB boundary (especially if price has broken the B point of the AB boundary), right?

Thank you,
Supra

[Raj]

Supra, everything looks good. As far as the trade at your yellow line...yes you could have taken some pips there as it was the 86 fib and we got that bullish CF, but only for a scalp since it was counter trend...better pips always with the trend. But yes everything else looks good!!

Yes SK, or any fib convergence you don't have to stay in the sk boundary.

btw, GJ has been a bit sideways on the daily since sept last year, and its at that support again, so wait for some direction at this point.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

That yellow line, do you consider it a confluence? As after a closer look, the 162 & 127 hits were not the appropriate D extension for the respective retraces so it might not serve as a valid confluence. Please advise.

Yes, let's see if previous support at around 140 is going to hold for GBPJPY now.

Thank you,
Supra

[Raj]

Supra, there was convergence there...the 127 support of that swing matching the 86 fib of the big upswing...the 86 fib is always good for some pips. I would have taken a 60min CF there for a short term trade.

:)

[Raj]

Keep an eye on this one. We're testing the 382 fib this morning.

:)

[pipsqueakr]

Still fighting the 382 and TL but if we can get on the other side... and get some bulls... we could be looking for the RT.

Is that a pennant forming?

[Raj]

Sure was a pennant!! Nicely spotted

[Raj]

Friday we sank from the sk res, which i missed, but the market was kind enough to come and test the TT with an additional set of tweezers this morning on the 240 chart for a nice entry...perfect abcd on the 60min.

:)

[pipsqueakr]

:) someone told me we had holidays all around... and yet you still manage big pips... ;) Congrats

[Raj]

Lol...careful on this one...potential bull crown set-up with 382 bounce so far

:)

[pipsqueakr]

yes seeing that... but with that spike seems deeper than a 382 retracement to me... is it that u r discounting that spike? Will try to keep an eye on this and the CAD during the next session

[Raj]

you're right, support at 50 so far.

:)

Yes keep an eye on cad today!!

[pipsqueakr]

that support at the 50 gave nice pips yesterday... got a few... but gonna be in and out of meetings a lot this week, so if i don't spot them early will probably miss some moves... that and caution about a little fundy they have on friday :)

CAD stubborn... wont get anywhere near decent fiblevel an TL combo

[Raj]

We are testing the Sk res again.

:)