Aud/Nzd

[Raj]

Well we're back at the top of that channel again, and it's looking like Tweezer tops on the daily chart. I have taken a short at 2411, so I hope the CF's do their thing.

Happy Pipping

:)

[Raj]

Well the market gave us some pips off those daily TT's, but we found support on the 240 chart....some subsequent announcements have propelled it out of the daily channel, so now Im waiting on some pullback to hopefully buy at a fib level.

:)

[Raj]

Well we may finally get some retrace after all...looks like the market will close today with an ES CF at the 127 res. Will look for possible short opps on smaller TF's.

:)

[Raj]

Bulls have reached a target...we may get some pullback from here...perhaps a short if we get a bearish CF

:)

[pipsqueakr]

Nice call Raj... wish i had seen earlier... :)

[Raj]

Only a slight pullback to the 382 support, but now we've reached the 162% on the daily, and the market is working on a 240 CF, I've shorted the ES on the 30min, and will watch the support fibs.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Are you taking the short just based on the fact that price has reached the 162 extension and you get a CF in the 30? Please advise.

I am still uncomfortable taking similar trades as, please correct me if I am wrong, it is essentially trading against the trend. In taking such trades, please shed some lights on the followings:

Q1: How do you determine where to place your initial stop loss?
Q2: How do you determine where to exit?

Thank you.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Ah yes, I think I see that you have a confluence with the 78.6% fib retracement from the Apr-30 & Oct-6 swing, but I am still unsure about the stop loss & exit. Please help.

Thank you.

[Rob123]

Raj and Supra, Hope you both have a nice thanksgiving with family and friends . Rob

[Raj]

Rob thanks, have a good thanksgiving both of you.

Supra, yes i was looking at that res fib also. Don't trade against the trend if you're not comfortable with it, and besides, we don't really have a definitive CF yet on the 240 or daily. Yes sometimes I take the smaller TF CF's as scalps in hopes that they become position trades so that i have a good entry. Unfortunately, we're just consolidating here right now, so we have to wait.

:)

[Raj]

Supra, if we get a decent Cf, then stop will go 15 pips byond the formation, and most of the time market comes back to at least the 382 fib of the latest upswing, that could be a target.

:)

[supra]

Raj & Rob, happy thanksgiving to you both.

Raj, thank you for the stop loss & exit pointers. Going further, please help on the followings:

Q1: When you say the 38.2% fib of the latest upswing could be an exit target, please advise which t/f swing are you referring to.

Q2: Say you have a rule of risking 2% of capital on trades, do you take the same risk on such counter-trend trades?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi if 2% is your rule, then you must follow it onj counter trend trades also. Always best to be consistent. Anyhow, since we got no real bear CF, I'm scalping some long pips from the SK.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

What I meant to ask is whether you use a lower risk level when trading counter-trend trades as opposed to trend trades. Please advise.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Nah, its all the same for me Supra.

Watch the pair now, its at some support

:)

[Raj]

I took the cowboy long right from the sk mentioned in last post, but if you waited then 240 chart gave a nice morning star CF...and bulls are getting back in control

:)

Happy pipping

[Rob123]

Raj what you think here down ? Rob

[pipsqueakr]

Interesting spot...

on the 4h we are sitting on the UTL and looking very long

but the 1h... imo has more bears in the picture i would favour bears if we can get on the other side of the UTL

since i started the post the bulls have been flexing... i have been in shorts... from the 1H... will lock pips

[pipsqueakr]

Sure looks like the start of a morning star on the 4H @ this UTL but continuing to watch the 1.2656 area and the TL

[Raj]

This is what I have, overall daily bear crown process in the works with RT at the 768 fib...currently smaller uptrendline holding at the 382 support fib....no indications of bulls yet on any TF....hope this helps

:)

[pipsqueakr]

a bit messy but just another view of the A/N if we are able to break the UTL/cant break the DTL

see what effect if any fundies bring

[Raj]

Righto Kurt...nicely done hope you snagged some also!!

:)

[Rob123]

Hi Kurt And Raj .I took some pips on this one as well sell limit at 2650 area ...we had a nice triple touch Sr wedge like formation around 2650 on the hourly.Little risky but it worked out ok about a 1.5 reward. Rob

[Raj]

Nice work Rob!!!

:)

[pipsqueakr]

Nice trade Rob :)... Raj nice analysis on the daily back on 1-29. Your daily crown sure has paid.

[Raj]

It sure has - thanks boss!!

:)

[Raj]

I have shorted 2900 level based on previous daily res. So far it has produced a 240 bearish candle that is giving some pips.

:)

[pipsqueakr]

Who says u don't need to pick tops and bottoms lol... congrats, i hear that destiny favours the bold... :)

[Raj]

I've just let my trade run since the 2900 entry, but I've posted 1hr chart showing possible entries at fib levels w/ CF confirmations.

Happy pipping

:)

[pipsqueakr]

I'm writing down the numbers 50/618... they seem to be important :)

[Raj]

Don't worry about the 50 fib...its mostly useless, unless we're talking GJ which has an affinity for it.

:)

[Raj]

Next res level approaching at the D ext. Maybe we'll get a CF there.

:)

[pipsqueakr]

Raj thanks for the heads up... appreciate it... been a struggle but tried to find an entry on the 5m... but the 1h/4h now looking more promising... keeping my fingers crossed :)

[pipsqueakr]

Tried to take it like Raj... but instead made a bad one... thought we had CF on the 1h but... even after giving room above the 1.18 on the new swing... got taken out

this is what happens when u take tired trades & don't even break the TL :(

[Raj]

Kurt I woke up this morning hoping to see a nice 240 CF sitting on this chart, but nada. Will of the market


:(

[Raj]

Possible Gartley trade forming here.

:)

[pipsqueakr]

Just a few pips away from the d ext on the gartley and the 618 of the main swing on the 1h

[Raj]

:) You can either take the long with your stop below the 86 fib or wait for a CF. The choice is yours

:)

[pipsqueakr]

U know me... patience is not my thing lol... well actually i was gonna be away so...went ahead last night and took the former the market seems to have hit the pause button though.

[pipsqueakr]

A/N largely propelled by recent fundy paid well :)

[Raj]

Still paying yes...there was a fundy? Hmmm, and I thought it was just our gartley setup LOL

:)

[Simmco14]

Hey...stepping back in gingerly..keep me updated:)

[Raj]

Okay will do...latest update...up 120 on this pair...is this what you meant by update? LOL

:)

[Simmco14]

hmm....good update..but not quite the one I was hoping for.
lol...hope all is well.

[Raj]

The 240 bearish CF has not closed yet at the SK resistance (also past support becoming resistance), so let's wait for that, then on the 60min chart let's look for a test of it...perhaps up to the DTL.

:)