Usdjpy

[r-factor]

Hi.

I am looking at the USDJPY chart.

The daily chart is on a downtrend. The 4 hour chart is also on a down trend and recently tested a Fib SK level resistence. The 60 min has just began to make higher swing lows and lower swing highs since its previous up move toward the SK resistence of the 4 Hr chart. On the 1 hour chart I have high lighted the previous SK support of the previous up move from the 23 Jan to the 25 Jan. The price has broken the first SK level and has made a lower swing high and lower swing low. Presently, it is testing the second SK level. I am thinking of entering on the next lower swing high. However, would need to be carfull as it closes near the 104-105 level as there is strong support there.

P.S. I would really appreciate if you anyone would comment on my studies and show me where I am going wrong. Thank you.:)

Cheers.

R-factor

[FibMaster]

The 60 min has just began to make higher swing lows and lower swing highs since its previous up move toward the SK resistence of the 4 Hr chart.

Either there is a typo in that sentence or I'm confused?

If you post charts in .jpg format, you will probably be able to have bigger images. 1024X768 is what seems to work for me. It's difficult to see your images as you have them. You probably posted them in full size, but the system will resize them if you exceed the allowable size.

Great post! More traders should do this, it's very educational to compare ideas on charts.

More comments about your chart analysis to follow.

[FibMaster]

Since I don't know what your trading time-fame is, I'll have to make some assumptions. If you were trading a 5 minute chart, then what I write here will outdated history.

I like most of what you're saying, but have a few suggestions.

As we know (after the fact) this chart has formed a consolidation since your posting. The daily down-trend has lost momentum. What indications did we have to warn us of that loss of momentum? Notice the swing high on Jan 25th (daily chart. This is a significant rally off the bottom of Jan 23rd. That rally is above a trend-line that you could draw from the high of Dec 27 to the high of Jan 10th, extended forward in time. So the prior down-thrust was losing steam, with a significant bounce! The swing high of Jan 25th was higher than the swing high of Jan 22nd, so the down-trend is being challenged.

Because of that price action, we might expect some support to enter the market, perhaps forming a consolidation, maybe even a base for a rally. Until the market makes lower swing highs and lower swing lows on the Daily chart, that down-trend is suspect..

There were shorting opportunities intra-day (scalps and pips here and there), so shorting was still good trading. But the overall down-trend was losing steam and being challenged, so shorts for the higher time-frames would be more risky.

I'm not sure if this comment applies to your trading time-frame, but thought I could volunteer my observations anyway. Someone may benefit.