Analysis for Supra

[Raj]

Hi Supra, I think the best way for me to tell you how I analyse the market is to break it down into stages...let me know if all is clear, and ill post the next one.

So first I squish the daily chart and find the extreme of the move and start pulling my fibs. Basically I look the the abcd pattern to repeat itself. Here are the fib retraces you should look at: 382, 50, 618, 786, 86. The following fib extensions should also be programmed into your fib tool: 118%, 127%, and 162%.

382, 50, and 618 retraces - the targets are 162%

786 retrace target is 127%, and 86 retrace target is 118%

So when we hit the extensions we look for the next swings.

As you can see on the last swing we didnt even get a proper 382 retrace, and so at the 127% we found support, and bulls have subsequently pulled up for further retrace.

With me? Let me know.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to you for starting this thread in response to my question about your trading method. You do have a kind & generous heart.

And although the thread is directed to me, if you don't mind, I would like to welcome other traders interested in learning from you to join in and post only relevant questions. With that said, my sleeves are all rolled up now and I am ready to get down dirty.

The following basic premises you have stated are well-noted:
#1. fib retracement & extension ratios used
#2. schedules of target extension based on retracement levels
#3. identify abc pattern
#4. when extension target (point d) is met, look for the next abc pattern

I have thus experimented with the 4-hour chart and I am attaching a couple of charts with several initial questions that come to mind. Please note, however, that should my questions get in the way on how you prefer to teach your method, please do not hesitate to continue in the manner that you think is best.

Enough from me for now, and I am back to "all ears" stance.

[Raj]

Great work Supra...okay to answer your questions...
1. Yes your initial swing points are valid...you could have also chosen your initial b point at the higher high because thats when the market took out the last high on the way down prior to the uptrend.

Now just keep this in mind...from point c-d...if point d is far off and we don't have any major announcements, then the market will naturally find resistance at the 118 or 127 levels...you can see this on almost every swing.

Also, 240 charts are very nice because when we are looking for our point c for entry, we look for a nice candle formation at a fib level (hopefully it is at a point where there are other convergences like sk, other overlapping fibs, past support/resistance, pivot levels if you use those etc etc). After we get a CF we can turn to a 60/30 chart and easily find an entry in the direction of the trend.

Three bullish CF's I look for are Morning stars, tweezer bottoms, and bullish engulfing candles.

Three bearish ones are Evening stars, tweezer tops, and bearish engulfing candles.


2. C1 is not invalidated - you see the market likes deep retracements like the 618, 786 or 86 in some cases. The swing had a 382 retrace and started to rally, but often times if there are no announcements, then the 382 fib doesn't hold...sometimes it sinks before taking out the high, sometimes it runs up to the 127 and sinks...in our case, the market wanted the 618 fib...this is why I sometimes say I don't like trading the 382 fib...If you're going to trade it, be prepared to put a monster stop below the 86 fib. Too much risk always. And speaking of stops, they should be ideally placed below the highs and lows of the most current swings....often times this is too much risk also,...thats why we look for CF's...this way the stop can be placed 10 pips below the formation.

3. When D ext undershoots - you can clearly see that all undershoots were finding resistance at the 127% (as explained earlier) this is natural. When this happens, just set up the next swing and look for point c again. Clear off old fibs when D extensions are hit so that you are only concerned with the latest swing.

One thing I forgot to mention...Trendlines trendlines trendlines...this is the base of all trading I think. Everytime the market makes a new high, adjust the trendline to your last point c. Then wait for the retrace and convergence at point c - it could be trendline at a fib level, with past resistance to become future support etc. The more convergences the better.

Hopefully this helps, keep the questions coming!!!!

:)

[Raj]

i have been in a long from near sk...but we're approaching some 382 res, I will bank some profits here and keep the rest running. Im hoping the daily candle closes as a bullish engulfing candle for further up moves.

:)

[FibMaster]

I hate to interrupt this great conversation, but it is necessary..

This forum/website is moving to a different machine. so I need to lock the forum, so it is not changing while the move is under way.

The forum will be locked for a day or two, and will re-open as soon as possible.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

I've been trying to post but have problems attaching charts.

Is it just me having this problem? Or does it have to do with the website moving etc?

Could we have some help here, Mr. Moderator and/or Mr. Administrator? Thank you.

[Raj]

Yes I think they are still working on it, I couldn't post a gj 50 pip trade just now either.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Sorry for the reply delay as I have been away the past several days.

It seems that the forum is still locked. If you don't mind communicating via e-mail, please write me at supra198@gmail.com.

Thank you & happy pipping.

[FibMaster]

What do you mean the forum is locked? Can you give more details?

Since we can post messages, the forums is not locked?

[supra]

Hi Neal,

I thought it's locked since I am having problems attaching charts. Please kindly enlighten me.

Thank you.

[FibMaster]

Do you get an error message? Any clues?

[FibMaster]

Thanks for letting me know about the image upload problem. TraderZine has moved from one Internet server to another. So a few things went wrong...

Image uploading works now, it's fixed!

[toyogo00]

Hi,

I attach a sample chart here. So it should be ok now!

Regards,
Toyogo

[supra]

Hi Neal & Toyogo,

Thank you for helping, gentlemen.

Attaching/uploading is fine now, however, it seems that previously attached attachments are gone. Would appreciate further assistance.

Cheers.

[FibMaster]

I'm viewing previous charts without any trouble. Can you point me to a missing one?

[supra]

Hi Neal,

Must be something wrong with my home computer, everything is fine now on my office computer.

Thank you for looking into it.

Cheers.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Pursuant to your post #3, please help with the following questions:

Great work Supra...okay to answer your questions...
1. Yes your initial swing points are valid...you could have also chosen your initial b point at the higher high because thats when the market took out the last high on the way down prior to the uptrend.

Q1. Do you follow certain rules/criteria in selecting the AB pivots? If I am not mistaken, you are concerned with the 2 bars before and 2 bars after in determining a pivot? What do you exactly look for?

... we look for a nice candle formation at a fib level (hopefully it is at a point where there are other convergences like sk, other overlapping fibs, past support/resistance, pivot levels if you use those etc etc).

Q2. Is SK solely a confluence of the 38.2% & 61.8% fib levels or also others?

Q3. What do you mean by overlapping fibs?

After we get a CF we can turn to a 60/30 chart and easily find an entry in the direction of the trend.

Q4. What entry trigger do you look for in the 60/30' chart after getting a CF in the 4-hr?

One thing I forgot to mention...Trendlines trendlines trendlines...this is the base of all trading I think.

Q5. What do you do if a trendline is broken?

Thank you.

[supra]

i have been in a long from near sk...but we're approaching some 382 res, I will bank some profits here and keep the rest running. Im hoping the daily candle closes as a bullish engulfing candle for further up moves.
:)

Hi Raj,

I am trying to go through the rationale why you took this trade and why you managed it the way you did.

I have attached daily & 4-hr charts for a clearer reference. The daily shows the SK you referred to and the 4-hr zooms in on that plus the fib resistance & some lines (please do correct me if I had any of the fibs wrong).

Given the daily up trend it's obviously safer to go long, which you did when price reached the SK. I presume you entered based on the 4-hr chart though I have no idea what was your trigger (please advise), but on my feed there is a beautiful MS CF right on the daily SK.

You then banked some profits at the L3 resistance which had a confluence with the previous swing low and let the rest run. My thoughts on why you exited partially here is because you wanted to play safe as you entered on the 4-hr chart which essentially was in a down trend. You let the rest run because the longer-term daily trend is up and that's why you were hoping for a daily bullish engulfing bar.

Please advise whether my take above is correct. I would also be interested to know where you had your initial stop on this trade.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, yes there was confluence there....not only sk, but also the 127 support from the down fib...then on your chart you got a hammer, plus a small MS...many many reasons to take that long.

:)

[Raj]

Okay to answer some of your questions

1. Yes a high or low is defined by two candles to the left, and two to the right (i guess you're calling this a pivot)

2. Sk is the 382 and 618 combo only

3. Just like sk is the combo of 382 and 618, I also look for other fib combos...when you have a bunch lining up at a certain price that also becomes a strong level of supp/res (786 and 382 for example)

4. Entry after 240 CF - please see attatched GbpCad chart, yesterday we got a 240 MS...then I turned to a 60 chart and waited for retrace to a fib level..market came back to the 382 and gave us a hammer (right at the previous consolidation resistance which was going to act as support now)...after this candle, I went long back up to sk, then we got tweezer tops at that res, now this level was the 86 fib of the latest downswing, not only that, since the upswing was a 382 bounce, we look for res at the 127...can you see the confluence for the short now? (sk, tweezer tops, 86 downfib, 127 res on the upswing). So we take the short back to the support at 1.7690, then see if we get another CF for a long back again.

5. Usually if the market breaks one trendline it goes to the next trendline - see attatched audjpy chart.

Hope this helps

:)

[Raj]

Hi Supra, remember how i didnt necessarily like 382 bounces...well look what happened to gbpcad this morning...wasnt happy with that 382, pulled back to the 618 for the bounce. If you are going to trade the 382 fib, best to keep your stop below 618, better below a low or 86 fib

:)
Happy Pipping

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the answers.


1. Yes a high or low is defined by two candles to the left, and two to the right (i guess you're calling this a pivot)

For a swing high, do the 2 candles both on the left and the right of the "high" bar have to have lower highs & lower lows or just lower highs?

I shall study your charts carefully so as to fully digest your explanations.

You've been most helpful, thank you very much.

[Raj]

For a high, the two candles to the left and right must have lower highs than the centre candle

For a low, the two candles to the left and right must have a higher low than the centre candle

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for clarifying on the highs & lows.

Looking back at your first post, it seems that my questions have unintentionally kept you from presenting the next stage of your market analysis. My apologies for that. Right now, I will sit tight to receive the next installment of your instructions.

Cheers. :)

[Raj]

Okay well to continue with the GJ, lets assume we're back in time to when the market gave us a dbl top. As you can see from the first chart, we broke the uptrendline - bells start to go off...now i've zoomed in see second chart - and you'll see that after the market broke the trendline it took out point labelled 1. This was our "a" support during the uptrend....we wait for a low to form...once we have that...point 2...we pull our fibs and look to sell the right shoulder of the head & shoulders pattern...look for convergence...in our case we had the backside of the trendline and the 618 fib - perfect short. Then the market came down to the 127 support and once it made that low, you simply set up the next fib and then sell your CF at fib levels...we got a bearish engulfing candle at the 50 fib, so we sell that. Then the market decided to do its sideways thing bouncing from sk back up to the 382 fib - and if you recall I traded some of that north. Then finally we broke out and made a beeline for our "d" extension from our first fib - 162%. You can see that the 127 support from our second fib was also sitting at that price level - that is two supports, so at this point I would be waiting for a CF to take a long position, and the 60 chart gave us a Morning Star, and eventually the 240 as well. Then when we got the low formed, we pull another fib, and look to sell the next resistance...which I did Friday morning at the 382 fib...because at this level the market already told us there was plenty of past support that would become resistance (remember the sideways mess??, and also the underbelly of SK!!), also there was a 15min evening star created. I hope I wasn't too confusing...let me know if you have further questions.

:)

Happy Pipping

[supra]

Hi Raj,

A great second installment!

Appreciate if you could please help with the questions on the attached 4-hr chart.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, sometimes if there is good convergence there, I do short right at the 618 fib....otherwise you turn to a 60min chart and you'll see the market gave an Evening star, you could have shorted that (i've attatched the chart).

General rules I follow for s/l is that for a 382 or 50 fib entry I require a CF...for 618 and deeper, no CF required as long as stop goes above/below last high/low, or just outside the 86 fib. If this is still too much risk, then wait for a CF.

As far as the 50fib hammer, I never got one on my chart (attatched 240 also)- but I see it on yours...generally with a CF like that, I tend to wait and see if the market will give me a second matching candle to make it tweezer tops.


Also, overall, I tend to ignore the 50 fib (meaning I usually don't takes trades at it) - I consider it the most useless of the fib levels. And if you are going to take it, make sure your stop is above the 618, 786, 86 etc etc.

Hope this helps

:)
Happy Pipping

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Hi Supra, sometimes if there is good convergence there, I do short right at the 618 fib....otherwise you turn to a 60min chart and you'll see the market gave an Evening star, you could have shorted that (i've attatched the chart).

Q1: Most of the times the support/resistance levels are obvious but it's the time-frame to pull the trigger in that has been my issue. If I waited on the higher t/f I got in late, entering right at the end of the move. But if I went down to the lower t/f I entered too early & got whipsawed. Please shed some lights on choosing the right t/f to pull the trigger in?

General rules I follow for s/l is that for a 382 or 50 fib entry I require a CF...for 618 and deeper, no CF required as long as stop goes above/below last high/low, or just outside the 86 fib. If this is still too much risk, then wait for a CF.

Q2: Just to be clear, so for 382 or 50 CF entry s/l goes past the 86 fib or even the last high/low? And if I recall right, you mentioned that for a 618 CF entry, you'd place a tight 10 pips stop above/below the CF candle?

As far as the 50fib hammer, I never got one on my chart (attatched 240 also)- but I see it on yours...generally with a CF like that, I tend to wait and see if the market will give me a second matching candle to make it tweezer tops.

Q3: Could you please explain why you'd wait for a second confirming candle here? Is that how you generally trade a hammer? Or is it because it's at the 50% fib which you regard as least useful?

Q4: Once you get your CF trigger, how do you normally enter trades? Do you place a buy/sell order a few pips above/below its high/low?

Thank you very much for sharing. :)

[Raj]

Hi Supra, I usually pull trigger based on 30/60 CF...but I have been known to take 5/15 CF if im really sure about the trade ie. amount of supp/res.

when you have your ab boundary, its best to put your stop outside 86 fib anyways, but what im saying is that when you get a CF, you can place it 15 pips above or below the formation. Half the time the market tests CF's so sometimes you get an even better entry.

About that 50 fib hammer, yes its just because I dont like the 50 fib, I don't trust it. Ive seen so many times a the market turn at a 50, then come right back and go to the 618.

:)

[Rob123]

Hi Raj and Supra, Just wanted to let you know i'm watching and learning from this thread as well. Thanks,Rob

[Raj]

Glad to have you Rob...now I was asleep during the UK session, so I didnt catch the down move, and it was pretty quick also, unless you were on a 15min chart and took the two CF's, or perhaps just shorted the 618 anyways, then congrats. I have shorted 151.16 this morning, as the pair was below the previous cons and this was acting as resistance...have taken partial profits at the backside of the downtrendline, and will watch to see if we get a break of it.

:)

Happy Pipping

[Raj]

Its been a scalping day for me on this pair...went long on the morning star prior to announcement up to the res, then took the 5min tweezer tops for the short...and have locked in for the south move

:)

Happy pipping

[Raj]

Im banking the short for the day at the upfib 786 support - this is the level the market found support the other day also.

:)

Happy Pipping

[supra]

... I have shorted 151.16 this morning, as the pair was below the previous cons and this was acting as resistance...have taken partial profits at the backside of the downtrendline, and will watch to see if we get a break of it.

Hi Raj,

With reference to your post #31:

Q1: Did you short at 151.16 after that long bearish candle that closed at about 151.25?

Q2: Where did you have your initial stop loss?

Thank you.

[supra]

Its been a scalping day for me on this pair...went long on the morning star prior to announcement up to the res, then took the 5min tweezer tops for the short...and have locked in for the south move.

Hi Raj,

With reference to your post #32:

I can see the CFs in the 2 charts you are referring to. Could you please indicate:

Q1: your entry level?

Q2: your initial stop-loss?

Thank you.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for your answers & the wonderful charts.

I am currently tied up with some new projects at work and have not much time for trading, that's why it's been all questions from me all this time. I really appreciate your bearing with me.

How I wish I could join you & Rob on the trades! Hopefully it will not take too much longer.

Happy pipping to both of you.

[Raj]

Supra for the 151.16 entry i waited till the two small tweezer top candles closed.

For the morning star long in the next post, I can't remember if I put a stop (terrible isnt it)...but normally under the hammer, and for the 5min TT entry, 15 pips above the tweezer tops.

:)

[Raj]

Ah yes and for that morning star entry, at the opening of the next candle at 151.03

:)

[supra]

Hi Rob,

I am glad to have you participating, otherwise I might bore Raj :).

Other traders interested in Raj's ABCD fib trading, please feel free to chime in.

Cheers.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, well just for education purposes...heres a trade I mad today...

EJ 240 chart had come to the 127 support off the latest down fib...so I was looking for a possible long...turn to a 5min chart and start buying bullish candles...I like to see if some pattern emerges...and we had a H&S turn up...market retraced to the 786...ideal entry with stop below the low...and the only indicator I sometimes use is the sto...and it was also ready for the rally....band at the 127 D extension for a 60+ pipper

:)

Happy Trading

[Raj]

boy I sure can spell today lol

[Raj]

I didnt think we were going to get any more today, but we got a nice morning star at the next swings 618 retrace...this one i'll bank at the high and call it a day.

:)

[Rob123]

Real nice Raj. Rob

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Great trades! You are a real inspiration. :)

Appreciate if you would share some knowledge on trade management:
1. Do you move stops when the trade is going your way?
2. When would you do so?
3. How do you do it?
4. What rules/criteria do you follow?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, I know alot of traders move their stops, I normally dont because the market loves to test, and retest, and retest etc etc etc. If the market moves alot, and I think the move will sustain itself then only I may lock in. Especially if you get a good rally, then everytime you have a new "c", stop can be moved.

:)

[supra]

Hi Supra, I know alot of traders move their stops, I normally dont because the market loves to test, and retest, and retest etc etc etc. If the market moves alot, and I think the move will sustain itself then only I may lock in. Especially if you get a good rally, then everytime you have a new "c", stop can be moved.:)

Hi Raj,

Given that you don't move stops, then please kindly share on how you manage or decide where to exit. I know that you expect price to reach certain extension based on the "c" level, but it doesn't always do so directly or all the time.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Well depends on what sort of trader you are ie. position vs. day trader etc... Sometimes I try to stay in a trade till the D ext., other times I look at the daily supp/res and Im in the market for just the trading session...all depends on how many pips satisfy you lol. Basically though evertime we take out a high/low, then the market usually pulls back, so I look for CF's against my trade, and I may bank profits and wait for the next swing.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

My apologies for the reply delay as I was out of town for the whole week.

Having read your answer, please kindly enlighten me on the followings:

Q1: So in a long trade you would expect price to take out the last high and then look for a counter CF to exit, but what if price doesn't take out the last high and start to go sideways? Would you not even move your stops?

Q2: Say you entered a trade based on a daily CF, would you stick to & base your exit on a daily CF or you might take an exit signal from a lower time-frame CF?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, because I try to buy deep retraces - 618, 786, or 86, I place my stop outsie the 86 fib, so if we dont take out the high, I don't sweat it because I know my stop is in a safe place...when we do take out the high, then I bank usually at the 127%, or if I get a CF against my trade. Remember the market can go sideways and spend all the time it wants within the latest AB boundary - this we have no control over, so best to have that stop below 86, or below last low.

I've attatched EG chart that I was trading recently - you can see my take profit levels are usually at the 127, before setting up the next swing

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the explanations.

You are buying deep retracements confidently because in essence you are trading with the trend. Please kindly advise how do you determine that a trend is underway & you are comfortable trading it.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, simply put we look for daily or 240 CF's at support...in the EG example, we got a daily morning star at a 382 support...so on lower tf's we're lookking to buy...CF's are usually tested, meaning on 30/60 charts we look for possible h&s pattern, then keep following the mini trend that was created till the resistance of higher TF.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for a crystal clear answer.

Although the learning never stops but I think you have given me enough knowledge to start demo-ing your ABCD fib methods. Trust that you'll still welcome further questions down the road.

Thank you once again for having shared generously. You're indeed a good soul and I see it as good karma to have crossed your path.

Cheers :).

[Raj]

Your questions help me to analyse and re-analyse my analysis, so thats a good thing - give me a shout whenever you need.

:)

[supra]

Most appreciated, Raj.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

I was looking back at the EURAUD chart and found this set-up which in hindsight did not work out.

I have hereby attached the daily chart depicting the context of the trade and the 4-hour chart on the intended entry. I would appreciate if you could take look at it and advise whether you would have analyzed the chart differently.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, my only beef with your setup was your stop placement...the market almost always re-tests supp/res levels, and when we get a CF, we try to place our stops 15-20 pips above the formation - that meant 15-20 pips above the 1.7033 level...that would have kept you in the trade.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for your answer. It makes things much clearer now.

And now that price is back to where the entry is and looks to be stalling, if you had taken the trade, please advise

Q1: How would you manage it?
Q2: Whether the previous low at 1.68 would be your exit target?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, I probably would have banked the trendline hit, but taken another entry at the 382 res.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for your reply.

I see that you seldom use indicators, but I would appreciate if you could share on what you use and how you use them.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Supra, I have macd and stochastics on my charts. Macd I look for divergence and the stoch I sometimes use if im scalping the smaller TF's, and I do look at the daily sto, just to see if lines up with the 240, or 30 for some entries.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

I am restricting myself to trading the higher time-frames for the time being, more on daily/4-hr context and 1-hour entry, but definitely no scalping yet. So will ask more about your use of the stochastics in due time.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, an example of the stochastics I was talking about occurred last night at 6pm just b4 the Asian session...euro had come doen to SK support at the trendline...the sto on the 240, 60, 30, and even 15min all lined up for a long, this rarely happens, but when it does, instant profits!!

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for a good & timely example.

Please pardon my ignorance, however, as it's not really clear to me when you said that the stochastics were lining up for long in all 240, 60, 30 & 15 t/fs. I assumed that you entry trigger was a 30 CF, and yes in the 15 & 30 the stochastics were up but not in the 60 & 240. I have hereby attached the 4 charts of different t/fs for easy reference. I would appreciate if you would kindly enlighten me.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, my entry was not at that later low, but right at sk at 4890...you see at that time euro was in the buy zone (above the trendline) so I technically didnt need any CF as long as I kept my stop below the 86 fib, its an aggressive entry, but with the indicator lining up, just added more confirmation. Most times when taking entries on the 30/60, we can not wait for the 240 sto, but it was pretty maxed, and looking to turn soon.

Hope this helps

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for your explanation.

Now that we are clear on the entry, could you please share on your exit.

Q1: Did you have an exit target in mind when you first took the trade? Where?
Q2: Where did you actually take profit?
Q3: Why did you exit there?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, target was 4765 - this level was the B high of the latest up AB, and it profited me out there. Not only that, the 240 chart has Tweezer tops at the 127 res, so further bearish pressure. Seems we were just going up to test them, but market found res at the 618 with a nice engulfing candle for the short. We are now back inside the AB boundary, so we should still watch for the support fibs here.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the clarifications. It seems that one has to be alert on so many things in trading, it's indeed getting more & more interesting.

What's your say on the bearish MACD divergence as per the attached chart?

Thank you.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Q1: Do you require your trades to meet a certain reward-to-risk ratio before you actually take them?

Q2: Do the "LT" & "RT" annotations on your chart stand for "Left Top" & "Right Top"? Are you trying to point out to a H&S formation?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, yes there is very nice macd bearish divergence - all happening at that daily 127 res area i mentioned a few posts ago. This is why bullish targets have to be small. We never know how far a pullback we'll get. And yes the LT RT stands for left tip and right tip. We try to catch the RT. And yes 1001 things to look at in trading, especially when you're trying to catch every swing!!!!

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the further inputs.

Regarding the reward-to-risk ratio on trades, please kindly share your thoughts.

Please also advise how many pairs do you monitor regularly & how many hours a day do you trade.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, I don't like anything bigger than a 50 pip s/l. I watch about 20 pairs
And I like to trade from 9am to 12pm actively on the US session, unless I'm expecting something to happen at a certain price - that signal could come anytime. Also at times I may put in some pending order for the UK session as I sleep if the setup is there.


:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

I hope I have digested your materials correctly... Please correct me if I am wrong.

I am looking at daily Gold which is testing 38.2% fib and forming a nice confluence with previous top at around 907. If we get a nice CF here (tweezers bottom right now?), I'll look for long opportunities in lower t/fs with 1007 & 1017 as target levels. Not optimistic on the prospect of Gold making a new high given that price had reached the 127 fib extension from previous swing and the bearish MACD divergence on the daily. Charts attached.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, for a 382 bounce we definately need a CF...the 240 chart is in consolidation. The only strategy I know for that is buy above the res, sell below the support. I dont have gold on my software, and I'm reluctant to call those TB as far as I can see on your chart.

:)

[Raj]

One of my friends correlates gold to euro, and on euro we're sitting at Sk support on the 240 chart, along with a 786 retrace within the 60min AB boundary. If we get a bullish crown on euro, then gold may follow suit, I'll ask him the exact correlation when I see him.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for your inputs.

Please kindly help on the followings:
Q1: Why are you not comfortable with those candles as TB?
Q2: Could you please give an example of a crown?

On the MT4 charts, I've just switched to using FxPro's as they have more pairs plus metals, indexes, futures, etc. Not that I trade them but it's always nice to have tons of markets for studying, and especially knowing that the methods you use works in all markets.

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, they didnt have enought wicks on them for my taste.

I've attatched two charts that ive been trading - both showing examples of crowns.

:)

Happy Pipping

[Raj]

Supra, euro smaller tfs are becoming bullish after the 786 hit, now the 240 chart has a possible crown on it so if and when it reaches 4740 area, we will watch for bearish signs - they may show up for a short again - its a possibility.

:)

Happy Pipping

[Raj]

heres another crown on the 15 chart....we were looking for short at the daily 786.

:)

[Raj]

Supra, you can check out my posts for GBP, I've shown a 240, and a 60min crown there also

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the crowns. Lots of them, eh? No wonder you are happily pipping :).

Raj, you mentioned about trading consolidations, could you please share how you trade them?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Supra, if you have a tight cons range 20-60pips say, then you can place a buy order 15-20 pips above the res, and a sell 10-15 pips below the support, just make sure you dont have any major supp/res fibs in your way. If you have a large cons range like we have on Cad, you can look for CF at the supp/res to trade within the cons.

:)

[Raj]

Supra, another potential crown setup

P.S. can you post current gold chart, I'd love to see what happened.

Thanks

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Please find attached the gold charts as requested.

Unfortunately didn't manage to get a higher t/f long entry. In hindsight there was actually a nice 5 minute long scalp opportunity.

Would you have traded the consolidation with your straddle technique in the 60? But as per your instruction a couple of posts earlier, I would say it's risky given the previous high at 998 which is sitting exactly at the 38.2% fib resistance directly above the upper consolidation range.

Any input would be most appreciated. Thank you.

[supra]

Supra, if you have a tight cons range 20-60pips say, then you can place a buy order 15-20 pips above the res, and a sell 10-15 pips below the support, just make sure you dont have any major supp/res fibs in your way. If you have a large cons range like we have on Cad, you can look for CF at the supp/res to trade within the cons.

:)

Hi Raj,

Please kindly advise where to place the stop-loss when trading the straddle & the CFs at the upper or lower consolidation range strategies.

Thank you.

[Rob123]

Hi Supra, Maybe Raj has taken a vacation...don't know. Hopefully he will be back miss him allready.Haven't really seen anything to trade this week myself...not yet anyway.Still early in the week. Rob

[supra]

Hi Rob,

It's nice to hear from you.

I am also wondering where Raj is. In fact, I was going to ask you as well. Hope all is well with him.

I have not been trading much, still busy with work & next week I'll be totally off, so just absorbing & digesting Raj's teachings for the time being.

Cheers.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, sorry for the late response...to answer your consolidation trading question...Ive attatched the Aussie Jpy chart. Once the market bounced a few times in that area ive marked daily cons, then what we can do is turn to a 240 chart and you will see at the cons res there are ES's that we could short, and there are MS's st the support we could go long on. Stops go 15-20 pips above and below the supp/res lines. For the breakout trade, you can place a long (direction of the bigger trend) above the res line 15/20 pips

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

My apologies for the late reply as I've been away.

Re the consolidation trade example, the entries you cited are well-noted & understood but please advise how do you manage the trade & where are your target take profit levels.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but as you go down to the lower t/f to find your entries, simultaneously you'd also find more support/resistance levels albeit minor ones. Would these minor levels have any bearing on your exit decision?

Thank you.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Been reading your GBP blends thread and am also bearish on the GBP pairs as well for the longer term.

This GBP/CAD gets my attention. It looks like there may be a long scalp opportunity based on the 240 SK support (provided we get a CF) before the down trend resumes. Would you agree? Please advise.

Daily & 240 charts attached for your easy reference.

Thank you.

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Anticipating a bearish crown set-up in the GBPAUD 240...

Cheers.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, yes nicely appointed on gbp cad pair. Hope you got those nice pips.

As far as targets on consolidation...I usually dont look at smaller supp/res, but simply let the chart fall to the major cons sup/res. And to be on the safe side, sometimes its best only to take positions in the direction of overall trend (never know when the breakout will happen)

:)

.

[Raj]

And Supra, brilliant on gbp aud...just keep an eye on the TL in the way

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the insight on the consolidation trading.

GBP/CAD: Turned out was not merely a scalp :). Unfortunately, I wasn't in front of the screen when the 15' gave a nice MS on a pullback. Any tips on how not to miss trades is most appreciated.

GBP/AUD: Yes, paying a lot of attention on that uptrend line. Planning to find a good entry once below it.

Hey, I forgot to mention this in the previous posts but it's really great to have you back. Hope all is well with you & your loved ones.

Cheers.

[Raj]

Thanks Supra...congrats on the pips!!!

Unfortunately, there are so many setups i miss out on too...but we can't be robots, and besides, "there is always a trade somewhere".

:)