Eur/Jpy

[Raj]

EJ has given some nice setups this week

...I think the charts speak for themselves, but right now a move above the 60min 382 fib could mean a run for the 618 for the bulls (if you look at the 30min chart chart provided, and as long as the upmove stays as a 618 bounce, then the fib extension hits the down 618...that would be a nice short, also could bounce at the 50fib where we find the 127% fib ext.)

...and for the bears they would have to crack that daily 382 fib, but if they do that the daily up Trendline is there to contend with. Now I'll wait for the next setup.

Happy pipping

:)

[Raj]

One thing I neglected to mention...we are stuck back inside this nasty range, so we can also see what the lower time frames have to offer once we reach the supp/res of it (CF's), just in case we decide to bounce around in here like we have in the past.

:)

[Rob123]

Raj you on this one ? Possible bear crown move . Rob

[Raj]

Hi Rob, can you send a picture my friend, because I remember trading the 60min bear crown a while back, and its subsequently hit its target, so Im thinking up for the time being, because we got a 786 hit on the daily chart, and im seeing some good CF's

:)

[Rob123]

Good morning Raj and thanks for the charts-more clear to me..

[Raj]

There may be a long opportunity coming up if the bulls give us a CF at the 127 d ext/support....failing that perhaps the bears are after the previous low at 132.75...in any event if they score that low, then there is ususally pullback, so i'll just be watching for that, as well as the next trend line.

:)

Happy pipping

[Raj]

Well, I said I was looking for a long opp at the 127 extension...if you were only looking for 30 pips a day in this market, you got it...you can see on the 1min chart the market set-up a beautiful Head and Shoulders pattern. We like to buy the Right tip and when it happens at the trendline, and 618 support, bang what a combo - straight upto the 162% target. Of course there are bigger targets, but just wanted to show the technical set-up.

:)

Happy Pipping

[Raj]

I took an entry this morning from the previously appointed 127 D extension after the 60min hammer...entered at 132.80 area...I know we haven't quite reached the 382, but im banking because there is sk res at 134, and im very tired after a busy weekend.

:)

Happy pipping

[Rob123]

Looks like this one has broken down below the 61/32 Sk on the 4 hr 136.09 -136.16- Let's see what happens from here. Rob

[Raj]

Rob...Im short from cons res on daily...you can try to sell bearish Cf's at resistance fibs.

Ive attatched some 60/30 resistances.

Happy Pipping
:)

[Rob123]

Thanks Raj, Great illustrations. I will be looking for sure for CF's.I do like your tips :) Rob

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Superb analysis & trades.

Please advise when you have identified a strong support/resistance level and waiting for a CF trigger to act upon it, do you have any consideration on which time-frame the CF has to occur for you to be comfortable in taking the trade?

To make myself clear, allow me to use a EUR/JPY trade you took & posted in post #8 of this thread as an example.

I have hereby attached 2 charts, the 60- & 240-min. The 60 is where you took the trade based on a hammer CF. Please correct me if I am wrong but would you agree that this is an aggressive entry? What concerns me in the 60 are the lower high lower low formation in that particular swing & the down trend line that the entry has to fight against. A 2nd option which I think is safer is to enter on the 240 based on the MS CF that has already broken the down trend line and also the swing is pretty smooth.

Given the above, please help with the followings:

Q1: Does the time-frame where the CF occur have any bearing on your decision in taking a trade?

Q2: Am I being over-analytical?

Thank you.

[Raj]

Hi Supra, yes it was an agressive entry because we were downtrending at the time. Counter trend trading is always dangerous. If you prefer to wait on the 240 CF, that's great...the higher the TF Cf, the better. In this particular example, I believe you could have also waited for a consolidation break after that hammer (buy 15 pips above, sell 15 below etc). Whatever you're comfortable with. I can't remember that far back, but I probably would have looked to see if there was any other support there perhaps on daily and 240, or if there was prior resistance becoming support.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Thank you for the clarifications.

It would be interesting to know where you had your initial stop-loss for that trade. Was it just below the hammer?

Thank you.

[FibMaster]

Hi Supra, yes it was an agressive entry because we were downtrending at the time. Counter trend trading is always dangerous.
:)

I was thinking that at the time. Seemed like you were after a short-term opportunity.

[Raj]

You are correct Neal, short term just back up to the 382 res.

If I get a CF at those 127 supp/res levels, I sometimes take them.

:)

[Raj]

I don't know about you guys but I really miss trading gbp/jpy...perhaps soon though

:)