Aud/Cad

[Raj]

I'm waiting to see if anything bullish develops if this pair reaches 9070 area...this point will be the 382 upfib, and it would be pretty close to the 118% fib extension of the downswing since we had an 86 retrace.

:)

[Rob123]

Hi Raj ,We have got a reversal pin right around the 9050 area so it may bounce up -we'll have to wait and see and hope i'm around to catch it.I have a question or 2 Raj - I'm assuming you don't allways play the 61.8 swings if a move has completed in the opposite direction.Say we have an uptrend and it's completed it's move from 38.2.50 etc etc to the 162 level(A to B).Ok say now we have our down move and it started it's swing at 38.2 - do you normally wait for 127 or 162 ? - On the up move do you normally wait for the 61.8 of the last swing are the whole move from A where it breaks a trendline ? I've been demoing this method but mainly have been playing the 61.8 of the last swings with trendline and confluences of 61.8 and 38.2 or close anyway and trying to spot a good SR and have done fairly well. I need to be more patient and wait on these candle formations. I draw trenlines and SR on the larger times as well just to make sure i don't run into a barrier. I normally wouldn't ask these questions but wanted your imput since you been trading this method a long time and you have been successful with it. Maybe in the future are when you get time i would like to know how you go about analysing your day and what charts you start with etc etc. Take care and thanks,Rob

[Raj]

Hi Rob, let me give you the way I do the analysis, this may help you to understand how I trade...

...first look at the daily...compress your chart if need be and start your fib count at the bottom of the move..you can see first swing 7720 to 8360, it had almost 618 retrace that means it will run to 162% - it did that and a little beyond...next swing is 7975 to 8930...this had a morning star at the 382 fib, and away it went...then everytime the daily made a high (two candles to the left, two to the right) we have these mini swings.

382 bounces typically find resistance at the 127%, and as you can see we've stopped at that level round about at the last high.

So now you can see that daily is in a retrace, and from the latest swing which is 8926 to 9163, we've had a 618 hit at the up trend line. see second chart.


Now look at the 60min chart....because we broke the steep inner uptrendline, the rule i was taught was that if you want to go long, you can do so if you get a 618 retrace or deeper (786 or 86 even) provided your stop goes outside the last low, or below the 86 fib. If that is too much at risk, then you must wait for a bullish candle formation. This rule will save you believe me - whenever i don't follow that, I get burned. So now we wait for CF...if we don't get one and the market sinks lower so be it...then look to the 786 or 86 fib for a CF. And if you dont get it at those levels - if it takes out the 86 fib, and sinks below the previous low, then we get a H&S pattern for a possible deep deep retrace, or market turnaround. It is in the bulls best interest to stay out of that messy consolidation between 8964 to 9020 though.

I hope I've explained it properly and it makes sense - if you'r not clear on anything give me a shout.

:)

[Rob123]

Thanks Raj .I will look over this and study this over. Rob

[Raj]

There you go Rob, we got our CF on the 60min.

:)

[Raj]

watch the resistance

:)

[Raj]

Its been a nice run from the entries

:)

[Rob123]

Hi Raj, Yes i did get a piece of the action - just a little late but made some pips. Good job.Your bonus check will be in the mail lol

[Raj]

Great job sir. Now that we've taken out the high, we're just going to do the same thing...waiting for retrace to a fib level...heopfully 618 or deeper, if less than a 618 then you definately need a CF.

Please note I have pre-maturely pulled the fib...still waiting for two candles to the right for the high


:)

[Rob123]

Thnak Raj i will keep an eye out. Hey when you get time check out the eur/cad- i'm showing tweezer bottoms on the 4 hr chart.I do notice that it has went below or right at the 86.0 level on the 1 hr chart last swing up.My daily chart is showing a 38,2 fib to the 162 and now we could be making the the retrace but we don't have the pivot high or the 1 middle candle and the 2 on each side yet -maybe we get it during the london session .The hourly concerns me right now.Would you call 1.0681 for a possible move up you think ? Looks like it just crossed up again as i type. Where would your Sk be here i;m wondering.Seems like there is a zillion ways to find support and resisitance. Rob

[Raj]

Hi Rob, not sure where you're getting that price from...here's what i have for eur/cad...in the bigger daily swing, we hit the 86 fib. 1.6160 was a nice sell - for a bearish gartley (you can see the 786 of downfib converges with 162% of the last up move)

On the 240 you can see that we have a new AB boundary and we currently have a morning star CF at the trendline and 382 fib.

You can try buying small tf pullbacks...me personally I don't like 382 bounces, so im staying clear at the moment, but that's just me.

(I didnt see the TB you mentioned)

Hope this helps

:)

[Rob123]

Raj.I'm sorry i meant the eur/cad pair. I'm going to wait on this one for a deeper pullback.It really is amazing how price reacts to the 61.8 levels on these swings even on the daily. Rob

[Rob123]

I'lll try to post a chart and show what i see and then you can critique me :) Rob

[Rob123]

Here is my chart Raj . My red and blue fibs need to be adjusted some but i'm close i think.The fibs to the right black ones is the ones i'm mainly referring too earlier.760

[Raj]

Hi Rob, not bad sir...just a few things i would do differently....please give me till weekend, Ill add some comments - Im in and out today.

Thanks

[Raj]

Heres something I do a lot of when I get a nice tight consolidation like we had last night.

Happy pipping

:)

[Raj]

nice long signals on audcad and eurcad

:)

[Rob123]

Thanks Raj, I will keep that in mind about the cons buying above and selling. Makes a lot of sense. Rob

[Raj]

well the rise has been fast and furious...but we hit another fib extension...just waiting on two candle to the right before pulling the next swing.

:)

[Raj]

Okay Rob, let's concern ourselves with that right side of the daily chart...we now have two candle to the right, so the daily swing is 1.5360 to 1.6245...and the 240 lets pull from 1.5675 to 1.6245.

There are no guarantees we're going to pull down but if we do...first we'll look at the retest of the 382 at 1.6028, and if we sink deeper then there is sk sitting there.

:)

[Rob123]

Thanks Raj, I understand that completely - So your SK is normally allways around the 61.8 level of the last swing and this concides with the trendline is this correct and confluences of fibs 61 and 32 -5900 ? When you trade do you often have more that one postion and take partial profits at a certain level or expansion etc ? Or wait for a pivot high(2 on the left and right) to form on a shorter time frame ? Thanks Raj for all your help. I'm going to call it a week .You have a good weekend .I'll be watching and observing next week.

Rob

[paddycal]

Hey Raj

just also wanted to say thanks and keep up the updates - very useful learning in your posts ...

Regards

Paddy

[Raj]

Hi Rob, SK is 618/382 combo anytime, anywhere, anyhow, doesn't matter if its near a trendline, or if the fibs are from consecutive swings, or from different time frames...but of course when you have all those things coming together (converging) that becomes a very powerful supp/res level. And needless to say, the higher the timeframe, the stronger the supp/res level.

Cheers

:)

[Raj]

Paddy, thankyou very much, I'll try my best

:)

[Raj]

took some small pips this morning

setup self explanatory

:)

[Raj]

eurcad had nice setup today

:)

[Raj]

Final trade of the day, only a 20 pipper, but the setup was there after the 30min closed a bullish candle at support

:)

[paddycal]

Hi raj

quick question , when you say you buy the .618 retracement , do you wait for a buy signal at this level , or put in a buy order just above this level ??

thanks

Paddy

[Raj]

Hi Paddy, it really depends on you Equity management. Let's say we're uptrending and you get a 618 retrace and you want to buy it. You can enter right at the 618 as long as your stop goes below the last low, or below the 86 fib (because there are two fib levels below 618 that the market could retrace to). If this is too much risk, then you wait for a CF.

:)

[Raj]

240 chart has reached another fib entension, so we can pull our fibs on the big swing. So far we're sideways after bulls reached their target. We'll have to keep our eyes on the CF's now.

:)

[Raj]

bears pulled the market down after bulls reached their target, now we are approaching some support, so we'll look for any signs of bulls, although personally I'd like the chart to fall some more.

:)

[Rob123]

Hi Raj, Your basically just drawing your swings from the inner trendline of the 4 hr chart correct ? So is your second swing down around the 9105 area or so ? Thanks,Rob

[Raj]

Hi Rob, that was just some 60min sk which the market has sank under and is currently hitting the underside of. Here is the 240 chart...hopefully we get a pullback to the 382 fib/TL. When the market breaks one trendline, it usually heads to the next one.

:)

[Raj]

Pair is come to re-test the 618 res...will watch for possible dbl top

:)

[Rob123]

Thanks Raj,That 9170 looks like a pretty good Sr pivot zone from my daily charts .you can see where resisitance turned into support awhile back to the left. Lets see if this one breaks down. I may try to scalp this one on the 5 and 15. Rob

[Raj]

Hi Rob, it seems my entry was 30 pips too soon...I should have waited for the d extension to be hit. (86 fib retrace goes to the 118 extension). Anyhow I took another short at 9190 during the Asian session last night.

Happy Pipping

:)

[Raj]

I have banked the short trades from yesterday at the sk support, 90 pips good enough for me for a Friday.

:)

Happy pipping

[supra]

Hi Raj,

I find your trading spot-on most of the time.

Would you please share how you do your analysis?

Thank you,
Supra

[Raj]

Thanks Supra...yes I did a step by step analysis of how I look at the market a while back on one of the pairs, but God help me if I can remember which post that was...leave this with me for a few days and I will pick a pair and post something soon, as it is Friday afternoon and its time for me to cut loose and enjoy the weekend.

:)

[supra]

Hi Raj,

Of course, after a week of happy pippings, what else is there to do... :)

Looking forward to your further instructions in due time.

Have a nice weekend.

Thank you,
Supra

[Rob123]

The 5600 just got broken or is right at it right now.The hourly charts has some good tails .The 15 min chart did make some lower highs and lows and made a lower high back up and then got rejected at 68 /32 Sk at 5600 with a nice 15 min tail.I may trade this one to the downside if we get some momentum.Late in the day so i will be watching it anyway Rob.

[Rob123]

Excuse me i meant Eur/Cad not Aud/Cad . Rob

[Raj]

no worries Rob...I'm shorting AudCad at price of .9140...if the trade works out, ill follow up with my reasons why.

:)

[Rob123]

Hi Raj ,I see what you are saying . Looks like we are trading very close the top swing high 61.8 level of the daily(91600) and has rejected the 9200 level with of those beautiful reversal pin bars.Let's see if she breaks.divergence on my schocastics on the 4hr.Hopefully i can stay up . Rob

[Raj]

This one didnt work out for me Rob...next possible short scalp will be at the 786 fib.

Cheers,

R

[Raj]

20 pips short off the daily res, and some long pips from sk

:)

Happy pipping

[Raj]

This one's a winner today, retest of the daily 786 fib gave a nice 40 pips down to the 618 support

:)

Happy pipping

[Rob123]

Hi Raj, I lost 30 pips on it.Nothing to worry about will keep trading the plan. Can't win them all :) Rob

[Raj]

Rob, I hate it when fellow traders have a loss, I feel the pain also...what was your trade?

:)

[Rob123]

Hi Raj,No worries my friend.I put a sell stop right below that pin bar on the 4 hr.I should have waited for that that daily resisitance to break down below.I was showing strong divergence on the 4 hr charts as well.I see where you went right below 78.6 later on the 5 min with a nice a little bearish morning star. I was asleep during that time. Rob