USD/Euro chart analysis.

[FibMaster]

Attached is the daily Euro chart, with a key resistance and support level.

There is a good chance that the Euro turns down soon. If it puts in a swing high below 1.50 then a double-top is the most likely scenario, with a move back down to 1.44 quite achievable.

The Euro needs to break through the support/resistance channel for the market to establish a new direction. This is useful knowledge - if you let the market point the way, you know how to trade it.

If there is a significant retracement, and the 1.44 support level breaks, this chart turns very bearish and could provide great shorting. Above the 1.50 resistance area, we can trade more aggressively to the upside as the bulls are in control.

Also, for DiNapoli fans, check your weekly Euro chart for a Double-RePo look-alike pattern (potential).

Comments/suggestions/questions are welcome. Post your own charts, or your own trade suggestions too. We all benefit from the discussion.

[abee]

Regarding your statement:

"There is a good chance that the Euro turns down soon. If it puts in a swing high below 1.50 then a double-top is the most likely scenario, with a move back down to 1.44 quite achievable.

The Euro needs to break through the support/resistance channel for the market to establish a new direction. This is useful knowledge - if you let the market point the way, you know how to trade it.

If there is a significant retracement, and the 1.44 support level breaks, this chart turns very bearish and could provide great shorting. Above the 1.50 resistance area, we can trade more aggressively to the upside as the bulls are in control."

See attached.

Is this correct?

[FibMaster]

Abee,

I've tried many different ways, but cannot see enough detail in your chart. Try to save it in jpg format, no larger than 1024X768 resolution.

[FibMaster]

From above post on January 12th. "There is a good chance that the Euro turns down soon."

Not that I know what I'm talking about or anything, see attached daily chart. Today marks a strong down-move. Not sure whether it will go to 1.44 but just wanted to show off.

My prior comments about EUR being bullish above 1.50 and bearish below 1.44 still stand. Based on todays action, I lean towards shorting rallies intraday. As long as the 60-minute or 4 hour chart makes lower swing highs and lows. But beware intraday support at 1.46 and 1.44

-Neal.

[ownshook]

Wed was an UGLY day for the Euro not really based on any strong fundamental news. I can just imagine how many stops were taken out today.
Anyhow...here is my 4 hour chart and I wanted to mention how the support was held nicely on the confluence at the 1.4643 area. Doesn't mean I am personally looking for any long at the moment...nor a short.

[abee]

Well, EUR/USD drop and hit my target as seen on pic.

I think, it might be making a correction to 1.47xx to confirm a down move, will see :cool:

[ValTrg]

Picture:
======

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/5603/eurusd150108short230kz7.th.png (http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/5603/eurusd150108short230kz7.png)


Analyse made on MT4. :rolleyes:

ValTrg

[Moxy]

Wed was an UGLY day for the Euro not really based on any strong fundamental news. I can just imagine how many stops were taken out today.
Anyhow...here is my 4 hour chart and I wanted to mention how the support was held nicely on the confluence at the 1.4643 area. Doesn't mean I am personally looking for any long at the moment...nor a short.

Woah, another tiny chart. Are my eyes ageing too fast and I can no longer see these charts?

Only joking :p

Price has pushed down again early in the London session, but the 1.46 area is still holding.

Neal, it's nice to show off once in a while. Well done !!

So the order of the day with EURUSD is short rallys intrady? Cool. Sounds like a plan.

Cheers,
Moxy:)

[ownshook]

Odd....The chart I uploaded was much bigger than that... 600x400 :confused:

[zyad]

hi all

first of all i would like to excuse my englsih as it is not my language.

attached a daily chart of eur-usd and it seems it is developing a wolf wave pattern . as you can see wave 1 and 2 are already established and wave 4 shall start from the area indicated by the two horizontal lines which is a fibo ext 1.27 and 1.618 from the low of 9/1/2008 to the high of 15/1/2008 . if this scenarion happen we shall get big pips.

happy trading

[Moxy]

hi all

first of all i would like to excuse my englsih as it is not my language.

attached a daily chart of eur-usd and it seems it is developing a wolf wave pattern . as you can see wave 1 and 2 are already established and wave 4 shall start from the area indicated by the two horizontal lines which is a fibo ext 1.27 and 1.618 from the low of 9/1/2008 to the high of 15/1/2008 . if this scenarion happen we shall get big pips.

happy trading

You forgot the the chart Zyad

[zyad]

You forgot the the chart Zyad


sorry. here we go :

[Moxy]

Yes I see the setup in progress Zyad. Still got a way to go yet, but it would make a great sell.

Notice your chart was very small too. Me thinks it's something to do with the forum setup. May be the administrator can look into this for us.

[Llamedos]

Hi All. This looks an interesting thread and so I thought I'd add my bit.

Firstly though I think we should all thank Neal for highlighting a near 500 pip profit for a week of doing not much. That double repo on the weekly chart may have not been as 'pretty' as some but it sure acted like a beauty when the time was right. Seems to me like there are an awful lot of people who have read Joe's book. It turned spot on the confluence and only just made the target 0.618 of the move. Very impressive.

Anyway, as for this possibly turning out to be a double top, I reckon it has quite a lot of justification for at least pausing for thought. If my calculations are correct it missed hitting a 'yearly' COP from the low back in October 2000 by about 40 points!! I'm not saying that this will definitely stop the advance, but I think we could see something of a reaction to it.

[Llamedos]

Whoops! Getting ahead of myself in my last post. I saw the single repo (B&B) and took it as a double. Best I slow down a bit otherwise I'll be getting there before everyone else. :rolleyes:

[faraz_fx]

Dear Neal,

I would like to send you my analyze that confirm the possibility of down trend in Ero/Usd.

By looking on my chart in attached file, we see that price couldn't,t touch the Andrew Pitchfork mid line in reaction and came down up to lower Chanel line and has been closed under the lower Chanel line and it is a good alert that the trend is downward and it would confirm if the price could break the trigger line(green line) and i think it is more possible than uptrend when i look at the stochastic has downward trend against the price action as upward and the formation confirm the double tops.

Then i think if the price close below the 1.4520 it would come down to 1.4310 in the first step and 1.4013 in the second step and will test 1.3550 & 1.3360 at least at the end.

At the end, i have to apologize if i couldn't explain clear because of my weak English.

I would be appreciated you if u let me know your idea about my analyzing.

Best Regards\
Alireza Mousavi
Tehran,Iran

[triad]

hi which book are you refering to in post 14 by joe

thx

[Llamedos]

Hi Triad

The book I am referring to is called 'Trading with DiNapoli Levels' by Joe DiNapoli.

[johntsai]

Hi Neal,

I found a good trade setup today in H4 at EURUSD.
Day MACD is up, price reach SK in H4/Trendline.

Can you let me know what do you think?

Thanks


John Tsai

[FibMaster]

Dear Neal,

I would be appreciated you if u let me know your idea about my analyzing.

Best Regards\
Alireza Mousavi
Tehran,Iran

Thank you for posting! I want to encourage everyone to post and exchange ideas.

Unfortunately I could not see your chart in detail, it is too small.

Perhaps the forums automatically resizes images when they are posted? I'll ask the administrator to look into this.

-Neal.

[FibMaster]

Hi Neal,

I found a good trade setup today in H4 at EURUSD.
Day MACD is up, price reach SK in H4/Trendline.

Can you let me know what do you think?

Thanks


John Tsai

Hi John,

Your analysis is great, for a long trade, but only after it can break through the weekly resistance. It is dangerous to be long just below resistance of course. So it is important to wait for the initial break.

Thanks for posting, it's a good chart!

-Neal.

[johntsai]

Hi Neal,

Here is my new analysis on eurusd for today.

Due to weekly sk reject price twice, it might form possible uptrend triangle.
combine with day trendline break up, it might test the current sk level (blue line)

in 4h, new trendline hold price, sk reject price, and macd is up.
there have very high possibility that price will going up to test day sk.

for position open, entry if h macd cross up, stop loss is below current 4h sk, target price is 4h fib ext(fushia color line)

how is the analysis for this possible trade tonight?
anything i missed?


John Tsai

[FibMaster]

Hi Neal,

Here is my new analysis on eurusd for today.

Due to weekly sk reject price twice, it might form possible uptrend triangle.
combine with day trendline break up, it might test the current sk level (blue line)

in 4h, new trendline hold price, sk reject price, and macd is up.
there have very high possibility that price will going up to test day sk.

for position open, entry if h macd cross up, stop loss is below current 4h sk, target price is 4h fib ext(fushia color line)

how is the analysis for this possible trade tonight?
anything i missed?


John Tsai

I can't disagree with your analysis, though I might geive emphasis to different aspects. On the daily chart there is a channel/consolidation (your rising wedge/triangle).

Since the Feb 7th bottom on the hourly chart, draw a trend-line along the swing lows. As long as that trend-line holds, we can buy dips in lower time-frames (at FibLevels). Be careful around 1.4650 some intra-day resistance a little above and below that.

Much the same as your outlook, I think?

[johntsai]

I can't disagree with your analysis, though I might geive emphasis to different aspects. On the daily chart there is a channel/consolidation (your rising wedge/triangle).

Since the Feb 7th bottom on the hourly chart, draw a trend-line along the swing lows. As long as that trend-line holds, we can buy dips in lower time-frames (at FibLevels). Be careful around 1.4650 some intra-day resistance a little above and below that.

Much the same as your outlook, I think?

thx lot for reply.

trendline is wat i look for entry at this point. you are right. your outlook is much same as mine. but i will combine as much info i have such as double ripple-dinapoli, candlestick, sk, divergent...etc you name it.

well.. as long as we are in same page, i am happy. thanks lot for your comment.

i will keep post new setup if there is one comes out.

[r-factor]

Hi all,

I think an intraday long set-up is materialising.

The daliy trend is up.

The four hour trend is up and the grey line is slightly down, perhaps sign of a retracement. The four hour resistance has been broken (in purple on the chart).

Now, I have done fib studies on the recent up move on the four hour chart no. 1. There are three sk supports. One has already been tested as can be seen but I would like a retracement to the second red line. If that holds, we can long the chart. However, as can be seen from the 4 hour chart no. 2, there is a lot of resistance at teh 1.47 area. If that area can be pierced we may see a move back to the top of the channel (range).

I have used the two hour chart to trade as the price action is nicer than the one hour chart. The price is testing one of the supports and looks to be moving north. If it does, I would wait until it moves beyond the 1.47 area to enter long.

On the side of caution, a lot of European economic data will be coming out this week.

This is my take on the EURUSD chart.

p.s. Neal, how did you get the res of the 1.4650? Will you show it on your chart please? Thanks.

r-factor.

The charts can be found here: http://r-factor-chartsandlikes.blogspot.com/

[ownshook]

I am also looking at a long position on the Euro around the 1.4600 area where I have placed a thick blue line.
Sk level off of the 4 hour chart conincides with the uptrending blue line. Due to the range with this pairing...my profit target would be around the 1.4700 level (.618 expansion level) DEPENDING on the movement of the market. If the market has some gas....I like the 1.4760 level which conincides with a .618 retracement and a 1.618 expansion level. Not too greedy to the upside though.

[ownshook]

Whoops...forgot chart. Having to wait for approval did not allow me to attach chart to previous post :cool:

[johntsai]

Analysis for the position:

day chart: price reached weekly resistance 14863
4h: trendline break down, macd and sto both down.
h: macd down for the downtrend confirmation.

o 14826 / sl 14865 / tp 14773

profit 58 risk 34
ratio 1:1.71
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I close the position this moring due to 4h sto oversold. it seems 618 ext hold the price. Instead, new trendline formed. I open another position this morning for long.

new openning position.

at this point, price might not break down instead test the high.
due to day macd is up, 4h sto had cross UP, h macd cross up.

position open

o 14831 / sl 14790 / tp 14876

62 profit 36 risk
1:1.72 risk and reward ratio

here is my trading journal link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1867339#post1867339

[johntsai]

hi neal,

i currently saw the update you made at eurusd.

i did not understand about zig-zag part. can you explain?
do you mean bounce up and down between support and resistance?
or double top? or something else?

[ownshook]

hi neal,

i currently saw the update you made at eurusd.

i did not understand about zig-zag part. can you explain?
do you mean bounce up and down between support and resistance?
or double top? or something else?

I can help you with that.........during the wednesday workshop after the Euro broke the trendline...hit sk and using the trsi...Neal predicted that we would get sideways action and drew in the zig-zag before the market got there. Actually...here are his words:
"There is an increased chance of consolidation now that the red trend-line is broken and the TRSI has come all the way back to 40".