TRSI bounce setup on AUDJPY on 16 Mar 09

[toyogo00]

Hi,

It is another very comprehensive seminar from FibMaster on last Saturday about TRSI. I would like to post the possible TRSI bounce as described in the seminar on AUDJPY pair.

The AUDJPY has strong weekly up trend. The daily trend has crossed up from the flat. The 4 hrly chart (as shown) has trading range (channel) between 61.50 to 64.40 and it is now at the top of the channel where TRSI is resting at 60 level.

Setup:
Wait for 4hrly TRSI to cross up above 60, the price should break above the channel top by then - around 64.40 - 65.00. Buy long as the trend will be in favor of higher time frame (both daily and weekly).

Trigger:
Use break out strategy on the lower time frame (30/15min) to spot a formation of HH and HL pattern above the channel top and then enter long on the dip.

Exit:
The next SK resistance is around 68.00, so may use Fib Exp or TRSI cross up on lower time frame to find exit.

Regards,
Toyogo

[toyogo00]

Hi,

Sorry, it is my mistake that it is not a TRSI bounce setup. It is just a continuation of bullish trend if the TRSI move up above 60 level or failed to cross down from 60 level.

Regards,
Toyogo

[Lifesong]

Hi Toyogo

Well spotted setup and a precise to the point explanaition of your plan!!!

The only aspect I am not perhaps supporting your view is that you deem the 68 level as SK resistance and would appreciate your clarification of why? I notice that some Fib expansions confirm that level and that is also the previous SH, so there could be some validity in this level. Depending on your trading TF I would even propose monitoring price action around the 68 level and once it breaks through it, I won't be surprised to see the 70-70.50 being reached. The reason for my rationale is that we've broken the LT down trendline on the daily, TRSI is upwards at steep angle and furthermore I am following a possible H&S pattern with a profit target of at least 70 which also coincides with another SH (see my chart).

Being more of a swing trader I've made my first entry with SL@63.70 previous SL on 4H and as long as we stay above it I'm confident that we'll see at least 68 level, but hopefully 70 level over next week or two.

Happy trading!!

[toyogo00]

Hi,

That sk res around 68 is derived from the previous high/low (90.26 on 22Sep08/55.11 on 24Oct08) - see chart. It is also stated on Dailyforexcharts update today.

I think the H&S formation in your chart is not well defined H&S. Anyway, I see this chart is bouncing up from the bottom with weekly TRSI in a very strong up trend and a possible resistance is at 68.00 where weekly TRSI may start crossing down (will see).

I've taken a long trade @64.70 and exit @65.25 with about +50pips profits but re-enter with 2 losses - final result with +7pips. lol! another lesson that not following rules on the two re-entry trades!

Regards,
Toyogo

[Lifesong]

Toyogo

My reference is to the DAILY chart and the SK you referred to is on 4H chart. My biggest concern with that being an SK is due to the fact that on the Daily the 68 level was broken on Nov 4th and retested on Jan 6th. In light of this I won't be surprised to see it brake towards the next SH. You may recall that we had similar scenario with USDJPY http://www.traderzine.com/forums/showthread.php?t=452 with SK resistance @ 95 level on Daily chart which gave way on Feb 24th and then blasted through another two SK's before turning down!

As mentioned before I'll trade whatever the charts are telling me and I don't try to guess it, but these are probabilities I'm taking into account over the next two weeks or so!

[toyogo00]

Hi Lifelong,

You are right that we only trade what the chart tell us. I'm still following the long trade on this pair (indeed, both EURUSD and GBPUSD are also presenting a similar opportunity) - weekly, daily, 4hrly all up trend and bounced up from SK support on hrly.

I've been waiting to enter long since asia session for 15min to form HH and HL starting from the sk support @64.60. However the 29pips bar may just destroy the HH and HL formation over past 10 hrs (It has broken the HH and HL on both EURUSD and GBPUSD). Just have to be more patient to wait for the next opportunity!

Regards,
Toyogo

[LH0425]

hi toyogo...this is carib.. good analysis..good work :-)

[toyogo00]

hi toyogo...this is carib.. good analysis..good work :-)

Hi,

Well, I didn't follow up on this chart after two down days (18th and 19th) as the daily TRSI is still trending up from level 60. On 20th, the 4hrly TRSI finally crossed up mildly at 04:00am (See 4hrly chart) with the SK support still holding @64.61. The hrly TRSI has also crossed up mildly at 07:00am (see hrly chart) - this has generated a buy long setup.

A reasonable entry will be around 65.20 which is above 61.8 ret on 15min chart at around 9:00am. At this time, both 4hrly and 1hrly TRSI have also confirmed crossing up. The profit will be around 100-140pips using Fib Exp.

The opportunities are always there and we must really patient and wait for the trend to setup using FibMaster method.

I would like to post the high probable trade setup prior to the trigger and really appreciate it if everyone could help to analyze and post it as well (I may miss it). It will act as an early alert for trigger, such as this one from Lifesong - a good high probable trade setup coming on the way : http://www.traderzine.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2408&postcount=12

Regards,
Toyogo