EURCAD Trade 17th dec 2008

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Here’s a trade taken on 17th Dec 08. It was on the EURCAD. Chart shows nearest to the DiNapoli stochastic I have on these charts as I don’t have access to my normal charting and TRSI at the time of writing.
(All times GMT)

Must be the chat within Neal’s chat room rubbing off, but I seem to have got my head screwed on this week. I’ve had a few good trades this week, and seem to have got over a hurdle - have much more faith in the methodology. In the company of masters and all that. (Graham_S in chat)

EURCAD had long term overhead resistance at 1.7000. At 0800hrs on 17th Dec it pushes thru 1.1700 which becomes support. No more long term o/head res apparent. 1315 bounce off 15min SK support at 1.6978. 1330Hrs 30 min TRSI cross and 60 mins TRSI trying to cross. 15min TRSI cross at 1330. Enter long at 1.7041. TRSI tries to re-cross down, but not confirmed. Give price the benefit of the doubt as it hasn’t crossed below the near term 15m trend line and following it up nicely, and price is still edging upwards. Price gives a leap upwards, thru 7100 to 1750, hesitates for a short while and then booom – up and away with unexpected momentum to above 7200. Hesitates, doesn’t drop below 7200 (good sign), then up to 7370 with a bit of a wobble at 7300.

Exit gave me a bit of a conundrum – stick with the plan (trsi cross) or take the quick 300 pip profit as it hesitates above 7320 – price blown thru every p1, p2 and p3 (op/xop) level. 15m trsi gives no excuse for exiting, but notice that trsi is at 75/80 at 1500hrs with price at 1.7350 – indicates well o/bought. Wondered whether to exit. I stick with the plan and rsi and exit at 1.7248 on unconfirmed TRSI cross.
Got to admit, if price had blown up to the 7400 and shown any hesitation i would have been out, TRSI permission or not. Can always re-enter.

[fxedge]

That's a great setup. The retracement was shallow enough and held. Where would you have put the stops?

[FibMaster]

Must be the chat within Neal’s chat room rubbing off, but I seem to have got my head screwed on this week. I’ve had a few good trades this week, and seem to have got over a hurdle - have much more faith in the methodology. In the company of masters and all that. (Graham_S in chat)



Graham, it was great to meet you in chat. I'm planning some more chat days for January and February, so I hope you can join us again.

[FibMaster]

That's a great setup. The retracement was shallow enough and held. Where would you have put the stops?

Since Graham hasn't answered, I'll give you some thoughts...

I often use the same oscillator for entering as I do for exiting. In that case, stops are rarely touched, because the oscillator get you out well in advance.

Stops should be placed below a deeper FibLevel (in an up-move), or above a higher one (in a down-move). That way your stops are protected, giving you a chance to exit at a better price if the FibLevel holds.

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Hello fx Edge and Neal,

Sorry didn't reply. Traderzine normally sends an email out teling me there has been a post, but didn't receive one until this morning.

Stops were placed as 'disaster stops', as Neal says, hidden below fib levels. It took me ages to suss out what was meant by this. When I did, and if I've got it right, a big chunk of DiNapoli's and Neals stuff suddenly fell into place - like the corner piece of a jigsaw. I looked at Neal's updates on the 4h or even 1h charts where he'd say '....and stops can go above the blue line at around x price...' where the blue line is 400pips away from poss entry. Crikey, I thought, Neal's a rich bugger! How deep are his pockets:-)? I'd be spreadbetting at 50p a point at that:-)
(About half a mini lot).

Anyhow, the theory is that the trade is managed (in this case with the TRSI), so price shouldn't go anywhere near the stop before closure. If something happens and the trade does go against you, the fib level should hold and hopefully bounce the price back so you can get out at a better price or even break even. If i've got that bit wrong, you'd better put me right, Neal.
Perhaps a little lesson to make it clear on an update would be helpful?


This EURCAD trade was being managed 'live' using the TRSI, also with the 15m near term trend line as an indicator at first.
On entry my initial stop was placed at 1.6900 which was just below the 618 retracement on the 0730 - 0945 bars (15m chart GMT). Once I had got my act together and the trade started moving up the trend line, i moved the stop up to 1.6960, below sk that helped me in.
When the price blew thru 1.7300 level and started retracing, I moved the stop to 1.7195, just in case price dived faster than i could react - the trsi would have crossed back down by this time.

I may be a bit timid, but on any sort of account, I never place an order without a related stop. It hasn't happened to me yet, either demo or live, but I've heard plenty of horror stories of orders being placed without stops, then the trade hanging in limbo for reasons from the system going down, the broker playing sillly buggers, to the trader just completely forgetting about it.

[blink]

Chat was good. I'm looking forwad to some more. However, it is totally dependent on how my shifts fall. They fell well last time. You sticking with the same hours, or moving to a more actively traded time, or changing instruments?