USDJPY Chart

[DojiSan]

Today UJ rallied even when consumer sentiment and housing data shows there's is still a long way to go to US economy recovery. Maybe, some of the rally was due to traders becoming at ease when oil price dropped today, thus causing US equities to rally a bit this session. My chart shows that the downtrend line on the 4 hour chart has been broken, but price was met with strict resistance at my r1 level at 104.34. If price does not break this and it starts to go back down, then 103.54 will be my first target, followed by s3 at 102.88. Economic data from the US lately are still pointing to long recovery ahead, thus I am still bearish this pair.

http://www.TheForexDojo.com/uj.gif

[analea]

thank you for ur posting, i'm uj fan n i only trade uj now. from ur comments its giving me more confidence, about my prediction uj.

[FibMaster]

Hi Doji !

Welcome to the forums, the more good traders we have here, the better it is for everyone.

I agree, even though we have a near-term rally, I'm bearish the the UJ pair. If it can't break the 105.50 resistance, down she goes again!

-Neal.

[DojiSan]

108.66 was nearly tested this week but fundamentals may have finally caught up with UJ. Major hurdles for UJ to overcome to push towards 110

1. US Jobs weak. Unemployment rate at 5.5%
2. Housing sector still shows no bottom
3. Financial sector - more bad news from banks
4. Oil price sky rocketing fueling inflation
5. Overall US market sentiment - bearish ( dow broke psychological level of 12000 )

Two weeks ago I started a bearish call on UJ, but I guess it took that time for traders to realize the situation. Today UJ rolled over. Let's see next week if the trend continues. If yes, my midterm target is 106.57 followed by 102.43.

Good luck.

DojiSan
http://www.TheForexDojo.com/

[DojiSan]

Below is a DAILY chart study using the MACD to determine if UJ is a good short candidate. As you can see, previous MACD cross over show a significant downside to the price of UJ. The fifth and most current one suggest a "hard" fall.
The MACD is just crossing over and the daily last daily candle has just formed a large long red candle. If this holds true I am targeting 102.43 which is the 23.6% daily fib retracement. I have already opened a short position on UJ last friday. Below are also a few bullets that help me gain confidence to pull the trigger.

1. US housing still far from recovery.
2. US jobs not improving.
3. US unemployment at 5.5%
4. Oil price skyrocketing and inflation is running rampant.
5. US financial sector still very bad with rumours of more suprise bad news to come from the banking area.
6. Dow and S&P sentiment down. DOW just broke 12000 psychological level
7. Price of UJ tested 108.65 but did not succesfully break it.

I have stop set at 110 with target 102. It's a 300:500 pips loss/profit ratio.
Let's see how the trade plays out. Good luck :)

DojiSan
http://www.TheForexDojo.com/

http://theforexdojo.com/dojischart/uj6-21-08.gif

[FibMaster]

Doji, you must be smiling today. I dropped into your chat room yesterday and saw you were loading up on USD/JPY shorts. Nice down move since then! Great trading!

Suggestion: How about posting a summary of your trading result at the end of this week. I know you're way ahead of your profit target, so why not brag about it?

[DojiSan]

Doji, you must be smiling today. I dropped into your chat room yesterday and saw you were loading up on USD/JPY shorts. Nice down move since then! Great trading!

Suggestion: How about posting a summary of your trading result at the end of this week. I know you're way ahead of your profit target, so why not brag about it?

Hi FibMaster,

Thanks for dropping by in the chat room :). We did make some decent gains shorting the UJ pair with some traders achieving over 25% for the past two weeks. But UJ bears still cannot celebrate yet as you can see from the chart below. On the daily chart study, UJ did already rebreak the 38.2% daily fib, using 6-17-2007 as high and 3-16-2008 as low, downward, but as you can see the price is still caught in an uptrend channel. We would like to see UJ break the lower channel support right around 105.50 and stay below that area. When that happens then the probabililty of it hitting our 102 target becomes higher.

click here if you cannot see the image. (http://www.theforexdojo.com/dojischart/uj-update1.gif)

http://www.theforexdojo.com/dojischart/uj-update1.gif

[yess114]

Below is a DAILY chart study using the MACD to determine if UJ is a good short candidate. As you can see, previous MACD cross over show a significant downside to the price of UJ. The fifth and most current one suggest a "hard" fall.
The MACD is just crossing over and the daily last daily candle has just formed a large long red candle. If this holds true I am targeting 102.43 which is the 23.6% daily fib retracement. I have already opened a short position on UJ last friday. Below are also a few bullets that help me gain confidence to pull the trigger.

1. US housing still far from recovery.
2. US jobs not improving.
3. US unemployment at 5.5%
4. Oil price skyrocketing and inflation is running rampant.
5. US financial sector still very bad with rumours of more suprise bad news to come from the banking area.
6. Dow and S&P sentiment down. DOW just broke 12000 psychological level
7. Price of UJ tested 108.65 but did not succesfully break it.

I have stop set at 110 with target 102. It's a 300:500 pips loss/profit ratio.
Let's see how the trade plays out. Good luck :)

DojiSan
http://www.TheForexDojo.com/

http://theforexdojo.com/dojischart/uj6-21-08.gif

DS, What EMAs are you using on this Daily chart? Thanks. ty

[DojiSan]

I use the 50 and 200 ema on the daily.


DojiSan
http://www.TheForexDojo.com/

[DojiSan]

well, today the US market had huge swings and ended negative. My UJ short bias and target of 102 is in sight.

1. Fanny and Freddy - bad condition
2. 2nd largest bank failure was just announced today around 8 pm eastern time.
3. Housing market still down
4. Technicals indicating price roll over..

Here is the link

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atrd9_l.GrL8&refer=home

High probability that yen crosses will gap lower on Sunday open.

Good luck,
DojiSan
http://www.TheForexDojo.com/

[DojiSan]

The US government did everything in its power to prop up the financial sector, but in my opinion this is just trying to hide the sickness by putting patches of bandages on it. They are not trying to heal the sickness at its root!! This has helped the US equities index rally last week thus helping push the UJ higher, but be careful of the rally because it could turn out to be a bull trap. Looking at the USDJPY there seems to be a down channel that has formed on the 4 hour chart with the price heading for the intersection of the bottom of the previous up channel with the top of the newly formed down channel. The point of intersection is 107.10 I think this is a key level. Lets see if this level holds and if it does and the next few candles shows negative, then the probability of USDJPY retesting the bottom of the channel will be higher. Keep on a look out!!

click here to enlarge the image. (http://www.theforexdojo.com/uj-update2.gif)

http://www.theforexdojo.com/uj-update2.gif

[DojiSan]

The down channel has been broken and our 107.10 resistance level has been breached. We have closed all shorts and reentered when UJ broke down again on July 24, 2008. Bad economic data from Europe, UK and US during these two days guided and gave us confidence to re-enter the short. During the trade, we noticed that the 200 ema on the daily time frame was broken in the asian session and decided to hold for a test of the top of the downtrend channel which is also supported by the 50 ema. Once our target was reached, we closed all trades and sure enough, late european session reversed the price of UJ back up near the 108 area. Please see the chart, our target was where the circle is placed on the chart.

We still remain bearish the pair unless it breaks our major resistance at 108.57. If that happens the we switch our medium term bias to long until 110.10. If 110.10 is breached then we will switch our long term bias to long. A situation we would like to have because trading on the long side has the added benefit of getting paid the interest.

Return trading the short side has been generous with some accounts up by as much as 99% in two and half months. Our live session account where we show all trades live to our subscribers is up 75% in 6 weeks. :) Our money management rules are 5% max drawdown for the week and 5% upwards profit target. UJ has been trading sideways, but if it continues it downtrend and breaks the low of this sideways channel, we believe trading with the trend on the short side will yield more profitable return.. Trade with the trend :)..

good luck
DojiSan
http://www.TheForexDojo.com/


click here to enlarge the chart (http://www.theforexdojo.com/uj-update3.gif)

http://www.theforexdojo.com/uj-update3.gif

[DojiSan]

Finally my target of 102 was hit!! Had to wait a little longer, but it paid off big time. Currently UJ is not at 100..it might even go lower. Again, this trade really shows the power of fibs. The 50% retracement around 110 on the monthly chart was passed but held and if you had a little understanding of the fundamentals and the state of the US econ then that gave conviction to hold the short position. Technical + fundamental = success :) Here's the link to give a deeper understanding of the how the US econ came to be today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDh3FNuwrTc

good luck in trading!
DojiSan
http://www.TheForexDojo.com/