Audjpy

[Jens]

AUDJPY is looking very strong right now in 15M, breaking straight trough the two most recent .618 expansion levels, was'nt bother much with the 100.00 level either.

The question is if its best to wait for a SHSL confirmation above the 100.00 level. Any comments on that?

[FibMaster]

Jens, confirmation of rising swing high and swing low is preferable for a more secure entry. It is more aggressive to enter earlier, with a better entry price, but a higher risk. Nothing wrong with being more aggressive, if you can manage the trade and tolerate more risk.

I see your Fibonacci levels on my chart too, good analysis!

[Lifesong]

Hi Neal

Thanks for the great daily updates just a pitty I'm not able to catch all your spot on trade suggestions due to my day job interferring with my trading!!! But boy oh boy you've been accurate lately and I'm sure many other subscribers have been banking good profits! Also thank you that you are not just an advisor to your subscribers but also you've been a mentor through the course of my subscription and it is very much appreciated!!

It's with interest that I've been watching the AUDJPY updates you've been issuing lately. I have a few questions regarding the current price action on this:
1) Are you basing your long bias on the "Ascending triangle" pattern that has developed over the last two weeks or so in the uptrend on the daily chart or what makes you believe it will eventually break the 102 level?
2) In light of the fact that price action has been resisting around the 102 level for around two weeks, which time frame would you propose is the safest to trade the anticipated breakout on?
3) From past experience false breakouts may occur and how would you advise it to be avoided?
4) In the daily updates you also refer to the fact that price action should bust through the 102 level or break it with momentum. How will you notice from the charts that this has happened will you base it on the angle at which the TRSI moves upward or wil you look at the length of the bars after breaking 102?
5) What would your potential profit target and stop loss be in the event of a breakout materializing, and this is based on the assumption that I am willing to stay in a long term trade? I know that you prefer to keep track of continuous swing highs and swing lows, but I am not a day trader as you know and I'm willing to endure the waves.

I know you have a free "breakout trading lesson" on the Web, but would appreciate an eductional case study lesson being issued with your daily updates?

Thank you in advance for your great posts and I'm looking forward to hear your thoughts on this potential trade.

[FibMaster]

Hi Otto/Lifesong.

Great questions! I'm sending 3 videos to subscribers to explain the answers..

Your questions would probably take many hours to answer. We can discuss them in our live chat sometime? Look out for today's videos, they will be very informative. Not sure I want to post them here for non-subscribers, too revealing!

-Neal.

[John]

Neal, where is the recommended place to put a stop loss?
Should a stop loss be placed right on the sk level?

[lori]

woo-hoo! thanx for all those educational videos, neal, they were wonderful!--lori

[FibMaster]

Neal, where is the recommended place to put a stop loss?
Should a stop loss be placed right on the sk level?

Hi John,

In an up-trend, you should place a stop-loss below an SK level to protect it. In a down-trend it would be above the Fibonacci level.

[FibMaster]

woo-hoo! thanx for all those educational videos, neal, they were wonderful!--lori

OK Lori. I put out a bunch of videos yesterday. Just about wore me out!

[John]

Hi John,

In an up-trend, you should place a stop-loss below an SK level to protect it. In a down-trend it would be above the Fibonacci level.


So, leave some room for a wick that may expand? If this is correct, about how many pips above or below (on average)?

[FibMaster]

John,

There isn't an average, because it depends on market conditions. For example, in a fast-moving thrusting trend, the Fibonacci level should not be challenged very much.

In a slower market, with a weak trend, the Fibonacci level could be tested quite deeply. But then you probably shouldn't be trading such a chart?

[John]

John,

There isn't an average, because it depends on market conditions. For example, in a fast-moving thrusting trend, the Fibonacci level should not be challenged very much.

In a slower market, with a weak trend, the Fibonacci level could be tested quite deeply. But then you probably shouldn't be trading such a chart?


Thanks Neal.

I also wanted to know about the trend line. When you draw a trendline on a chart moving upward, and then the market changes moving downward below the trendline, does this mean that the downward trend is not effected by support as much (being that it is now below a trendline)?

[FibMaster]

Thanks Neal.

I also wanted to know about the trend line. When you draw a trendline on a chart moving upward, and then the market changes moving downward below the trendline, does this mean that the downward trend is not effected by support as much (being that it is now below a trendline)?

Yes John, that is usually the case. In a down-trend, the supporting FibLevels are not strong enough to hold price as much. So the trend will allow the support to break more in a down-trend.

[John]

John,

There isn't an average, because it depends on market conditions. For example, in a fast-moving thrusting trend, the Fibonacci level should not be challenged very much.

In a slower market, with a weak trend, the Fibonacci level could be tested quite deeply. But then you probably shouldn't be trading such a chart?


About how many bounces to the sk level should be allowed (tested) or always just wait for the higher resistance to break?

[Lifesong]

Hi Neal

Your AUDJPY update of yesterday refers. As you've mentioned the 100.70 to
101 level (SK support on 4H) is key for reversing long bias into short
bias. Your analysis was done on the 4H chart and when the last candle
closed around 14:00 GMT it closed just under 100.50. Is this minimal close
below the foresaid SK enough reason to start shorting the pair or would
you wait for the retracement & rollover before commencing shorts? This
approach would suit a daytrader, but what would you advise a swing trader
like me and what profit objective to the downside is realistic? Would you
use Fib extensions from the SH 103.70, daily SK supports or previous SHs to determine possible downside profit targets? If you don't mind do an analysis based on the 4H chart indicating how you'll determine the entry level, disaster
stop and then potential profit objectives? The request is not for you to
suggest a trade, but more what planning process and rationale you would
apply for a swing trader instead of daytrader who is able to monitor the
lower SLs & lower SHs to determine when to exit the trade.

Lastly would you perhaps also air your view of NZDJPY and what to expect
in the mediumterm?

Thanks in advance for your continued mentoring to subscribers of the Forex daily charts.

Happy pipping

[FibMaster]

About how many bounces to the sk level should be allowed (tested) or always just wait for the higher resistance to break?

Apologies John, I don't understand your question. I don't count bounces, so that may be why I don't understand?

[FibMaster]

Hi Neal

Your AUDJPY update of yesterday refers. As you've mentioned the 100.70 to
101 level (SK support on 4H) is key for reversing long bias into short
bias. Your analysis was done on the 4H chart and when the last candle
closed around 14:00 GMT it closed just under 100.50. Is this minimal close
below the foresaid SK enough reason to start shorting the pair or would
you wait for the retracement & rollover before commencing shorts? This
approach would suit a daytrader, but what would you advise a swing trader
like me

Hello Lifesong,

Currently the AUD/JPY chart has broken support and now rallies to resistance near 101.50 to 101.70 .. This is a good place to look for a short, if resistance materializes.

We want to short rallies. It is safer to short below support. Sometimes support breaks then price rallies back above support. We can attempt a short near that prior support, but it will be a more risky trade until that support breaks.

This approach is equally good for swing traders and day traders.

[FibMaster]

Hi Neal

Your AUDJPY update of yesterday refers.

What profit objective to the downside is realistic? Would you
use Fib extensions from the SH 103.70, daily SK supports or previous SHs to determine possible downside profit targets? If you don't mind do an analysis based on the 4H chart indicating how you'll determine the entry level, disaster
stop and then potential profit objectives? The request is not for you to
suggest a trade, but more what planning process and rationale you would
apply for a swing trader instead of daytrader who is able to monitor the
lower SLs & lower SHs to determine when to exit the trade.

Thanks in advance for your continued mentoring to subscribers of the Forex daily charts.

Happy pipping

Note that shorting above support @101.70 is not recommended. And above 102 the charts starts to look bullish near-term! You can use those to determine a stop based on your risk tolerances.

For a profit-point I need to do a little if-then scenario. If the current rally can resist near 101.50, a downside profit-objective could be near the 100.00 level, the the next support below that at about 99.50 or so.

[FibMaster]

Hi Neal

Lastly would you perhaps also air your view of NZDJPY and what to expect
in the mediumterm?

Thanks in advance for your continued mentoring to subscribers of the Forex daily charts.

Happy pipping

NZD/JPY is trapped between resistance at about 83.00 and support at about 80.00

If that support doesn't hold there are others at 70.00 and 78.00 approx.

Above 83.00 is bullish, below 78.00 is bearish. Until then it looks neutral with some tradeable swings on the daily chart (essentially trend-less)

How's that? I did my best!

[Lifesong]

In your dailyupdate of Wednesday Sep 3rd, you referred to AUDJPY being close to previous swing lows around 0.89-0.90 and warned shorts of being cautious. I also notice that this level coincides with the daily & weekly uptrend line and won't be surprised to see a bounce from here, eventhough the nearest Fib being @ just under 0.89. As you know I prefer being a higher timeframe trader staying in positions for days sometimes weeks, now the question is when will it be worthwhile entering a long term long. Would you wait for the daily TRSI to cross back up and where would you place a disaster stop?

[FibMaster]

This chart still wants south! It's pointing at your 89 level today.. Yes I'd like the daily trend to cross back up before trying any longs (4-hour chart trades). For your higher time-frame trades, better if the weekly trend has had a chance to cross up, then buy dips on the daily..

[Lifesong]

Hi Neal
Thanks for the reply and I notice that on the daily we have SK resist @ 0.9200 to 0.9250, but also the daily TRSI crossed up at an steep angle on my charts. My question is the following:
This pair has generally been influenced a lot by the US economic outlook over the last few years and in light of what the US government had to do over this weekend (rescuing Freddie & Fannie) I wonder whether this is just a bounce or a change of trend? If you were to trade the 0.92 SK would it be on the 4h charts or what do you suggest?

[FibMaster]

Hi Neal
Thanks for the reply and I notice that on the daily we have SK resist @ 0.9200 to 0.9250, but also the daily TRSI crossed up at an steep angle on my charts. My question is the following:
This pair has generally been influenced a lot by the US economic outlook over the last few years and in light of what the US government had to do over this weekend (rescuing Freddie & Fannie) I wonder whether this is just a bounce or a change of trend? If you were to trade the 0.92 SK would it be on the 4h charts or what do you suggest?

Both 4 hour and Daily are appropriate, though if it moves fast, the daily entry could be a bit late.

I wouldn't call it a change in trend. Look at the DOW, no trend change there yet. The govt has patched a hole, not fixed an economy.. It will take longer to confirm/verify a trend change.