shorting EURCHF

[jens.privat@sensor.as]

Hi, Neal

I have been shorting EURCHF 15 lately, now i feel it is a bit risky to go short because we are in the area of the long term trendline which is heading up. To trade the lower timeframes I feel it is better to wait for the daily trend to turn up and then go long. How would you treat this long term trendline in this case?

[FibMaster]

You have to take your own decisions, and accept the risk, but here is my assessment of the chart.

Major support at 1.6050 to 1.61 area, and it could get there. 4 hour and 60 minute chart are bearish. 60 minute chart continues down-trend pattern with swing highs and swing lows. Daily up-trend line has been penetrated, so bearish unless there is a snap-back rally. So 15 minute chart should have shorting bias.

Do some resistance studies 60m and 4h charts, use them to determine whether the market still responds downward, or it has strength to break them. Keep shorting unless the market rallies through resistance. 1.6225 looks like critical resistance, above there it starts to look more bullish.

-Neal.