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FibMaster
12-12-2007, 03:21 PM
I like MRK for a long play, but not just yet. Attached is a 60-minute chart. There is a bullish blue channel with Fibonacci support levels marked on that chart.

A pullback would be great! Support at $57.00 to $58.50 would be excellent. I'll be watching for an intraday rally from those levels for a potential long trade. Upside potential would be towards the upper blue channel line.. Below $57.00 the chart switches from bullish to bearish, so be careful down there.

Let's see how the chart develops.

See image attached.

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FibMaster
12-18-2007, 12:09 PM
MRK supported at $58.75, but has not rallied with much momentum yet. MRK is in the middle of the up-sloping channel (see prior chart), which is not ideal for an entry. The bottom of the channel would be ideal, though we may not get it this time. I'll be more interested in buying support there. Still there is a chance it can rally from here, to a profitable exit near the top of the channel. Even though this is less than ideal, partial long entries are permissible, with a stop-loss at $56.60 or below. A tighter stop could be below first Fibonacci support at about $58.00, but that is a more vulnerable stop.

In summary, cautious longs are possible here, but a retracement and then support at $57-$58 would be more attractive. Updated chart is attached.

Your questions/comments are invited. Post them here on the forum.

FibMaster
12-24-2007, 08:27 AM
The retracement that I was calling for has occurred (see post above), and MRK supported near $57.75

MRK has a bullish chart this morning. There is intraday resistance at $59.25, and MRK is trading above there. The next key intraday resistance is at about $60.00 to $60.25, above that MRK is quite bullish for a potential move to $61.50 .

Holiday markets can be skittish, so expect some retracements. For the downside, there are several support levels, but I would not want to ride any bulls down below $58.00 . A daily close below $57 would indicate that the bears own the chart.

FibMaster
12-27-2007, 07:36 PM
The significant resistance resistance that I predicted in my last post was too significant! MRK $59.96, then fell back again to $58.50. See the hourly chart attached.

MRK needs to take off or the bears will take over! The recent sideways action is dissipating some of the long-term upward momentum, causing this chart to look less attractive. Unless there is some buying soon, MRK could test the lower support levels at $57.75/$58.00 and $56.75/$57.00

Those two support levels could produce a great long entry in the future. If those levels fail, this chart gets really bearish, great for shorting!

In summary, I need to see an intraday rally, and it needs to get above $60.00 to keep me interested. A 60-minute cross up on the TRSI (at current levels) is worth a try to the long side, but if the rally quits below $60.00, I'll take my money and go home.

FibMaster
01-06-2008, 08:52 PM
MRK has retraced to the $56.75 support level. This takes it well below the up-channel that you saw on the above 60-minute or daily charts.

The prior momentum has declined because of the depth of this retracement. Even if MRK bounces from these levels, it doesn't have the same appeal. Actually there is a risk of a new down-trend beginning, if the $56.75 support level doesn't hold.

FXtrad
01-24-2008, 11:08 PM
You nailed it on this chart. Look at the current chart when you get a chance, it tanked! Your charts and posts are very helpful, thanks.